Most S&P 500 sectors are poised to report higher EPS year over year in their first quarter results, according to the latest S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
While some S&P 500 constituents including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. have already reported first-quarter earnings, the bulk of companies will be reporting their earnings from mid-April to mid-May.
S&P 500 companies in the energy sector are forecast to achieve the greatest first-quarter EPS gains, at 27.3%, compared to the first quarter of 2023, ahead of the index average of 20% and significantly above the second-ranked real estate sector's 10.8% in forecast annual growth.
The industrials, utilities and communication services sectors are anticipated to see the greatest declines in sectorwide EPS performance for the first quarter at 26.4%, 25.2% and 24.5%, respectively, below the year-ago quarter.
Large, midsize S&P 500 companies
Among the index's mega-cap companies with market caps over $100 billion, NVIDIA Corp. is estimated to achieve 405.9% greater EPS compared to the year-ago figure, followed by Amazon.com Inc. with a 173.5% growth forecast. Nvidia's revenue is estimated to have grown by 237.7% year over year.
Apple Inc. has increasingly lagged fellow Magnificent Seven stocks' performance in the first quarter and is the only company among the top five S&P 500 companies with the biggest market caps expected to see a decrease in quarterly EPS.
Estimated first-quarter EPS results for the largest midsize S&P 500 constituents — those with a market cap between $30 billion and $100 billion — were more mixed. Among the top five, only financials company Fiserv Inc. is expected to report a greater EPS compared to the first quarter of 2023 at 13.1%.
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The normalized EPS estimate for semiconductor manufacturer Analog Devices Inc. suggests a 55.1% decrease against the year-ago figure while semiconductor solutions provider KLA Corp. is expected to record a 7% EPS decrease. Both companies' revenues for the first quarter are estimated to be below actual revenues for the year-ago quarter.
Small S&P 500 companies
Among the top small-sized companies with market caps below $30 billion, medical device manufacturer ResMed Inc. is anticipated to achieve quarterly normalized EPS 13.4% above the year-ago quarter, while the EPS estimate for electricity company Xcel Energy Inc. is forecast to be 6.1% higher.
First-quarter EPS for real estate company CBRE Group Inc. is estimated to drop 23.6% below actual EPS for the first quarter of 2023 amid the US real estate sector's lingering struggles. Discount store operator Dollar Tree Inc. is also expected to log a 2.5% lower EPS for the first quarter.
Biggest EPS increases, decreases
Topping the list of companies with the greatest estimated increases in EPS are toy and game company Hasbro Inc., with an estimated EPS nearly 30 times greater than actual year-ago EPS, followed by Tyson Foods Inc., with an EPS estimate over 10 times greater than a year prior.
Biotechnology company Moderna Inc., real estate investment trust Ventas Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. were among the top five companies with the greatest forecast decreases in EPS for the first quarter over the year-ago quarter.