Home sales in the second quarter are expected to be higher for most US homebuilders on a quarterly basis but weaker compared to the same period a year ago.

US homebuilders are predicted to report 3.7% quarterly growth in home sales for the second quarter. However, home sales are expected to decline 13.2% from the same period in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Out of 15 select US homebuilders, 10 are expected to clock in higher home sales in the second quarter compared to the preceding quarter. Only two are expected to have higher home sales compared to the 2022 second quarter.

PulteGroup Inc. is the only homebuilder on the list that is expected to log higher home sales both quarterly and annually. The estimated financial services revenue for the company is forecast at $72.2 million in the second quarter, a 24.7% increase from the previous quarter but a 12.7% decline from a year earlier.

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Homebuilder stocks soar

The majority of US homebuilder stocks posted a positive one-year total return as of June 29, with an industry median of 84.9%, Market Intelligence data shows.

All the top five homebuilders booked a one-year total return of more than 100%, with Green Brick Partners Inc. emerging as the best performing stock at 192.1%. Green Brick Partners' consensus home sales estimate for the second quarter is $385.3 million, down 14.3% on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

Beazer Homes USA Inc. took the second spot with a one-year total return of 133.9%, followed by Dream Finders Homes Inc. at 128.8%.

New home sales increase nationwide

In May, new home sales grew 12.2% month over month and 20.0% year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 units, according to data from the US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.

New home sales were up in three out of four regions in the US annually but increased in all four regions compared to April. Northeast clocked in the steepest increase in new home sales at 110.5% year over year and 17.6% month over month.

"Newly constructed homes are selling at a pace reminiscent of pre-pandemic times because of abundant inventory in that sector," National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a June 22 news release. "However, existing-home sales activity is down sizably due to the current supply being roughly half the level of 2019."

Existing home sales registered a yearly decline of 20.4% but a monthly increase of only 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 million in May, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

All four regions in the US posted a year-over-year decline in existing home sales, with the Northeast and Midwest also registering monthly declines. Only the South and West booked a monthly increase in existing home sales, at 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively.

Home prices recover for 3rd consecutive month

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine US census divisions, increased 0.5% on a monthly basis in April after seasonal adjustment, compared to the 0.4% monthly increase recorded in March.

Meanwhile, the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite posted month-over-month increases of 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively, after seasonal adjustment. On a year-over-year basis, the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite logged declines of 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively.

The US National Home Price Index recorded an annual decrease of 0.2% in April, down from a 0.7% year-over-year gain in March.

Price recovery continues on broad basis

All 20 major metro markets logged monthly price gains, with 12 markets showing price acceleration, according to the latest data released by S&P Dow Jones Indices for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.

"The ongoing recovery in home prices is broadly based," said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Seasonally adjusted data showed rising prices in 19 cities in April (versus 14 in March)."

Among the 20 cities in the index, Miami maintained the lead for the ninth consecutive month with a 5.2% year-over-year price gain. Chicago came in second with a 4.1% increase, replacing Tampa, Fla., from the previous month. Third was Atlanta, which posted a 3.5% increase. Seattle continued to be the worst performer with a 12.4% price decline year over year.

Top mortgage lenders

UWM Holdings Corp. remained the top US residential mortgage lender, with $20.80 billion in mortgages originated in the year through April.

S&P Dow Jones Indices and S&P Global Market Intelligence are divisions of S&P Global Inc.