Elevated mortality is expected to plague life insurers' earnings once again, especially for group life, which handles most of the policies written for the younger, working-age cohort of the population.
Several life insurers reported higher severity and mortality driven primarily by deaths in the working-age group in the third quarter of 2021 as the delta variant of the coronavirus became prominent in the U.S. Although omicron, a seemingly less potent variant, is now dominant in the U.S., the tail-end impacts from delta and the lag that can occur with reporting may make mortality in the fourth quarter of 2021 worse than the prior period, according to Piper Sandler analyst John Barnidge.
"You're probably still going to see some level of headwinds as it relates to delta," Barnidge said. "Group performance is going to be important considering that has been an area of increased frequency and severity."
Comments life insurance executives make are likely to be in the backdrop of a "dramatically improving mortality" as the later part of the fourth quarter of 2021 saw mortality migrate back toward the older population amid waning vaccine effectiveness, Barnidge said.
"Ultimately we're going to be very carefully observing this interaction between severity, ages, total number of transmissions and what that's going to do to the claims experience," CreditSights analyst Josh Esterov said in an interview.
Analysts are also keeping an eye on how insurers are positioning their investment portfolios, Esterov said.
"The ability to mask a lot of problems through surging investment alternative gains, we might be approaching the end of that period," Esterov said.
The CreditSights analyst said fourth-quarter 2021 results should still be pretty good, but insurers may be in for a challenging first quarter of 2022 if they experience elevated COVID-19 claims costs and weaker sales and then do not have alternative investments that can make up for that lost ground.
Esterov will be interested to see how sales played out over the fourth quarter of 2021 as the pandemic continues to raise consumer awareness about the need for life insurance. The life sector saw its premiums grow year over year in the third quarter of 2021 by 6.9% to $48.7 billion.
The vast majority of the top 15 publicly traded U.S. life insurers are expected to post sequential earnings decreases in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to analyst estimates compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, though the year-over-year picture is more mixed.
As far as individual insurers go, Esterov will be listening for more details from Principal Financial Group Inc. after news reports revealed the insurer is in advanced talks to sell its U.S. retail fixed annuity businesses and its universal life insurance with secondary guarantees unit to Talcott Resolution Life Insurance Co.
Reinsurance Group of America Inc. projected it will see slightly higher mortality in the fourth quarter of 2021, with executives noting on an investor day presentation that they believe the ongoing impacts of COVID-19 on its mortality and morbidity businesses will "continue to be manageable."
With insurers like Lincoln National Corp. and Brighthouse Financial Inc., Esterov said he will be focused on how annuity sales are going, especially fixed annuities. The analyst hopes to get some color on what their sales forecasts look like.
"Variable annuities have rebounded," Esterov said. "But fixed annuities still have some catching up to do."
The U.S. life insurance sector is expected to remain stable, according to S&P Ratings analyst Carmi Margalit, although 2022 will likely not be as strong for sales and earnings as 2021.
"The overall positive trajectory the industry was on last year may continue, but most likely in a more subdued format, with lower sales growth, stable capital levels and reduced earnings compared to last year," Margalit said in a report.