The ongoing United Nations climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, may spur sales of sovereign and supranational green bonds, even if environmental activists are left disappointed by agreements reached at the event.
More nations and international bodies may follow the U.K. and Spain in offering green bonds as a way of highlighting commitment to the environment, and in order to provide an impetus for greater issuance by private companies. The EU has already started on plans to sell €250 billion
Governments sold a record $26.46 billion of green bonds in the third quarter of 2021, helped by the U.K. issuing a debut green gilt ahead of hosting the 2021 Climate Change Conference of the Parties, or COP26. The rush contributed to total global green bond sales reaching $318.53 billion in the first nine months of the year, surpassing 2020's record annual tally, according to data from Climate Bonds Initiative, or CBI, a U.K.-based green debt tracker.
The EU issued €12 billion of green bonds in October, while the U.K. sold £6 billion of green bonds in the month. Total global green bond issuance for the full year may hit €400 billion, or nearly $465 billion, according to NN Investment Partners, an asset management company.
Green bond sales help governments turn climate ambitions into long-term commitments because maturities are usually longer than a single electoral cycle. There is also normally a cost saving of 1 or 2 basis points, according to Bouvet, because of rising investor demand for socially responsible products.
Climate deal
The symbolic value of selling green bonds may be bolstered by the limited potential for a landmark climate-change breakthrough at COP26. Developing nations such as India, for instance, have been reluctant to commit to emissions targets without the promise of financial support.
"Nothing new is expected to come out of the COP26," said Tamami Ota, a senior researcher at Daiwa Institute of Research.
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Europe will continue to be the biggest region for green bonds, according to Douglas Farquhar, NN Investment Partners' client portfolio manager. Other regions will also grow, spurred by U.S. President Joe Biden's environment policies and China's 2060 net-zero plans, Farquhar said.
Asia-Pacific was the second-biggest region for green bond sales in the third quarter at $23.73 billion, an almost 25% year-over-year increase. Issuance in North America rose 3.6% year over year to $18.06 billion.
Sales in Asia have rebounded this year after the coronavirus hobbled issuance in 2020, according to Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager for fixed income at Eastspring Investments.
Energy crunch
A spike in oil prices has unsettled green bonds and wider markets this year. The benchmark Brent crude oil rose to $83.25 a barrel on Oct. 28, from $68.14 on July 1 amid global energy shortages.
"The energy crunch seems to be putting a chill on the green bond market," said Mana Nakazora, chief ESG strategist at BNP Paribas in Japan. Issuers may remain on the sidelines unless the COP26 issues more aggressive plans to fight climate change, Nakazora said.
The energy demand spike has slowed efforts to ease emissions, as governments instead focus on short-term boosts from increasing fossil-fuel supplies. China, for instance, asked banks to step up lending to coal mines and power plants as an energy shortfall threatens economic recovery.
Still, even with these short-term disruptions, green bond issuance will continue to grow in the long term, said Yoshihiro Fujii, executive director at Research Institute for Environment Finance.