The seven-largest S&P 500 stocks stumbled in the third quarter after a lengthy rally that carried much of the index's broader performance during the first half of the year.
The S&P 500 fell 3.8% from July to September, but was off a slightly less 3.6% when excluding its largest stocks — Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., NVIDIA Corp., Alphabet Inc., Tesla Inc., and Meta Platforms Inc. The narrow gap sits in stark contrast to the outperformance by those names in the first six months of 2023. Through the end of September, the overall S&P 500 has increased about 12.1% this year, but has gained less than 1.8% after removing the so-called "Magnificent Seven."
Those seven stocks, which account for about 28% of the S&P 500's total weight, all declined throughout 2022, but experienced significant recoveries in 2023 as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes failed to upend the economy and investors were lured to stocks connected to artificial intelligence. Over the past three months, however, they have struggled under persistently high inflation and signs of possible economic weakness.
"By definition, anything that can't continue forever will eventually end, and when companies get so big that they can't innovate and so highly valued that they can't reasonably grow into their valuations, they are vulnerable to underperforming the market," said Matthew Weller, global head of research with FOREX.com and City Index.
'Bears, skeptics and nervous investors'
Just three of the Magnificent Seven posted gains in the third quarter; all performed much worse than they had in the prior six months.
NVIDIA's stock, for example, rose less than 2.6% from July through the end of September, compared to a more than 195.5% rise in the first half of the year. Tesla shares, meanwhile, fell by nearly 10.6% in the third quarter, following gains of more than 142% in the first six months of 2023.
Equal footing
It is also possible that the seven mega-cap stocks simply got too large in early 2023, said Weller with FOREX.com and City Index.
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which assigns each member of the S&P 500 the same influence on the overall index, has consistently underperformed since March. The equal weight index is up less than 0.4% since the start of the year, compared to the overall index's 12.1% increase.
This has come as the market braces for interest rates that will be higher for far longer than many once predicted, said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist with JonesTrading.
"Over the course of the past two months, equity investors have begun to realize and price in that the US is not returning to the very low or zero interest rate environment that persisted from the global financial crisis through until last year," he said.