Large-scale U.S. solar capacity growth is expected to exceed wind growth for the first time in 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its "Short-Term Energy Outlook" released July 7.
Over the next 18 months, the EIA projected that electric generation capacity from renewables will continue growing, including solar and wind.
The EIA forecast that generating capacity from all renewables could, by the end of 2022, increase by 81 GW
About 16 GW of solar photovoltaic generating capacity in the electric power sector is expected to be added in 2021 and another 17 GW for 2022, the EIA said in its report.
The agency expects small-scale solar photovoltaic capacity to increase by about 5 GW per year through its forecast period. Residential photovoltaic accounts for most of the additional small-scale generating capacity for 2021 and 2022.
"Solar capacity growth in the forecast reflects various state and federal policies that support renewable energy," the EIA said in its report.
Generating capacity from wind turbines in the electric power sector is expected to grow by 17 GW in 2021 and by 6 GW in 2022, the EIA said in its report, though since wind capacity is often added at the end of the calendar year, increases in wind generation "frequently lag behind increases in capacity for the year they occur in" and are reflected the following year, according to the report.
Much of the slowing wind capacity growth can be attributed to the expiration of the production tax credit, the EIA said. The credit was extended through 2020 at the end of 2019 and provided a 2.5 cent/kWh benefit for facilities entering service or spending at least 5% of total estimated project costs through the 2020 calendar year.
New additions of solar and wind generating capacity also support the EIA's forecast that the share of U.S. generation from solar and wind will rise to 15% by 2022 from 11% in 2020.
The EIA also expects the share of generation from renewable sources to increase from 20% in 2020 to 21% in 2021 and 23% in 2022. The increase is projected to be mostly due to new solar and wind generating capacity expansions in the electric power sector, especially as the current drought in the West has restrained hydropower generation to about 6.5% of total generation in the 2021 forecast, which "would be the lowest share since 2015."