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Large M&A rebound picks up in 2024 where 2023 left off

January marked the second straight month in which four $10 billion-plus M&A deals were announced.

The eight deals during the period are the highest total over two consecutive months since 11 such transactions were announced from April through May of 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

After May 2022, the number of large-deals announcements slowed considerably, with just 28 transactions topping $10 billion from June 2022 through November 2023 for an average monthly total of 1.6.

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The dearth of large transactions in 2022 and through 2023 was a product of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. The backdrop for M&A became more conducive to dealmaking in the fourth quarter of 2023 with confidence levels and credit availability starting to improve, Evercore Inc. Chairman and CEO John Weinberg said during a Jan. 31 earnings conference call.

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– Read the fourth-quarter 2023 M&A and equity offerings white paper.

– Read S&P Global Market Intelligence's report on the 2024 outlook for M&A.

Evercore landed advisory assignments on three of the $10 billion-plus deals announced in January. The investment bank had buy-side roles in Synopsys Inc.'s $32.68 billion deal for ANSYS Inc. and Chesapeake Energy Corp.'s $11.66 billion deal for Southwestern Energy Co. Evercore also had a sell-side role on BlackRock Inc.'s $12.51 billion deal for Global Infrastructure Management LLC.

The only other global transaction to top $10 billion in January was Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.'s $13.98 billion deal for Juniper Networks Inc.

Weinberg said his firm is hopeful that the environment for deals will stay improved throughout 2024.

"However, it is still early days, and we continue to closely monitor the geopolitical and economic uncertainties that could alter the timing and strength of an M&A recovery," Weinberg said. "As a result, we expect the recovery to be a slow build."

The downturn that started in 2022 followed a spike in activity that peaked in 2021. Historically, M&A recoveries take one to two years to return to the normal trendline performance after the market bottoms, JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan said.

"I think 2023 is likely a trough year for M&A, and 2024 will be a transition year, a year of improvement," Ryan said during a recent episode of the Pipeline podcast.

Ryan expects M&A announcements to continue to pick up in 2025, getting the market back to its typical baseline level of activity.

The recent large deals are a sign that the market is improving, "and our expectation is that you'll probably see more of that activity follow in the first half of this year," Ryan said.

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