The world's renewables expansion is happening faster than at any time in the last three decades, setting the scene for what the International Energy Agency described as a "real chance" of tripling global renewables capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030.

Some 507 GW of renewables were installed in 2023, almost 50% more than the previous year, driven by unprecedented growth in China, the IEA said Jan. 11 in its Renewables 2023 market report.

While a record amount of new capacity was added in Europe, the US and Brazil last year, the IEA said China displayed an "extraordinary" acceleration, commissioning as much solar during the year as the entire world did in 2022, and increasing annual wind additions by 66%.

Still, achieving the 11,000-GW global target — set by governments at the COP28 climate change conference in December 2023 — will require countries to address policy uncertainties, invest in grid infrastructure, accelerate permitting procedures and provide sufficient financing in emerging economies, the IEA said.

Addressing such challenges could accelerate renewables growth by 21%, the organization added.

Under existing policies, the IEA sees global installed renewables reaching 7,300 GW by 2028. This growth trajectory would represent a 2.5-times capacity increase by 2030 but mean the world ultimately falls short of the required tripling, the organization said.

"For me, the most important challenge for the international community is rapidly scaling up financing and deployment of renewables in most emerging and developing economies, many of which are being left behind in the new energy economy," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "Success in meeting the tripling goal will hinge on this."

Describing China as "the world's renewable powerhouse," the IEA said the country will account for almost 60% of global renewables capacity additions by 2028.

Between 2023 and 2028, the IEA forecasts that China will build almost four times more renewables than the European Union and five times more than the entire US, which will remain the second- and third-largest growth markets, respectively.

This ramp up will help China achieve its 2030 target for wind and solar installations in 2024, six years ahead of schedule, the IEA said.

However, the exceptional growth in the world's largest economy is masking slower progress by other countries, with the IEA increasing its solar installation forecast for China by 64%, compared with about 7% for the rest of the world.

Overall, the IEA sees 3,700 GW of new renewables entering operation globally by 2028 under existing policies, with wind and solar overtaking hydropower, coal and nuclear in the global generation mix. In its 2022 report, the organization forecast 2,400 GW to be added by 2027.

One threat to this massive expansion, however, is the challenging macroeconomic environment, the IEA said, with higher interest rates hampering the rollout of renewables in advanced economies.

Inflation has increased equipment prices — particularly in the wind industry — and led to higher financing costs for developers, while policy has been "relatively slow" to adjust to the new market conditions, the IEA said.

Amid the inflationary pressure, major renewables auctions have been undersubscribed while some developers have pulled out of power contracts or even canceled projects altogether.

"Efforts to improve auction design and contract indexation methodologies are needed to resolve these challenges and unlock additional wind and solar [photovoltaic] deployment," the IEA said.

Beyond renewable generation, the IEA report also provided what it described as a "reality check" on renewable-powered hydrogen. Of all the announced projects globally, only 7% of the proposed capacity is expected online by 2030.

"The slow pace of projects reaching an investment decision combined with limited appetite from off-takers and higher production costs have led to slower progress on many projects," the IEA said. "To fully convince investors, ambitious project announcements will have to be followed by consistent policies supporting demand."