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Hotel, retail sectors hit 'hard' by distress in Q2 – RCA

Four months into the coronavirus pandemic, distress is showing in the retail and hotel segments of the U.S. commercial real estate market, according to Real Capital Analytics, or RCA.

Second-quarter hotel deal volume sank 91% year over year to $642.9 million, marking the lowest second-quarter volume in RCA records. Refinancing for hotel assets during the period was down approximately 50% year over year and about 30% off from the prior quarter.

RCA said the hotel sector has been hit hard by distress, with the inflow of distress in the second quarter totaling more than three times the average quarterly inflows of 2009.

Reports of potentially distressed assets surged in the second quarter, totaling $23 billion for the first half of 2020, with the number projected to rise.

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According to RCA, sales out of distress are higher for hotel assets than any other asset class. In the second quarter, hotels being acquired out of distress represented 4% of all hotel sales.

"If the sector continues to see growing levels of forced sales, it may exit the 'shock and triage' phase of the downturn and head to the 'price discovery' phase at a faster pace than other asset classes," RCA said.

In retail, second-quarter transaction volume decreased 73% year over year to $4.6 billion, representing the worst performance by the sector for any second quarter.

Like hotels, distress has hit the retail sector hard, according to RCA.

The inflow of distress in the second quarter totaled more than twice the average quarterly inflows of 2009, and the "pain does not appear to be ending" for the sector.

Reports of potentially distressed retail assets increased in the second quarter, totaling $29.4 billion for the first half of 2020.