Standard & Poor’s says the U.S. speculative default rate likely will increase to 3.9% by year-end from the 2.8% seen at the end of 2015, citing persistently low oil prices (of course), the beginning of tighter Fed monetary policy, and slowing global economic growth.

The full report, including a look at high yield new issuance, default by time horizon, and default vs interest burden, is available to subscribers here.