Vice President Kamala Harris will inherit the Biden administration's record on energy and climate policy as she looks to secure the Democratic Party's presidential nomination and deny former US President Donald Trump a second term in November.

Harris, who cast the tie-breaking Senate vote on the nearly two-year-old Inflation Reduction Act, quickly became the party's consensus front-runner after President Joe Biden announced his exit from the race July 21 and endorsed his former running mate.

In his announcement, Biden touted the law as "the most significant climate legislation in the history of the world." The legislation included $369 billion in direct spending and tax incentives for energy and climate measures, with bonus tax credits tied to prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements.

"The Biden term has been more climate-forward than people expected, which allows Harris to burnish her progressive credentials by simply staying the course," said Steve Piper, director of energy research for S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Should Harris win the election, "one of the real keys is going to be whom does she have in her cabinet because, after all, it's going to be her cabinet as opposed to Joe Biden's," said Roger Bernard, senior policy analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights.

More than $123 billion in private investment and at least 105,454 jobs have been announced in 40 states and Puerto Rico since the Inflation Reduction Act was enacted in August 2022, according to a May analysis by the business group E2. Of those investments, 85% have gone to Republican congressional districts, as have 70% of the jobs, the firm found.

Harris has also emerged as a climate leader on the world stage.

In November 2023, Harris traveled to Dubai to represent the US at the United Nations' annual global climate summit. There, the US joined more than 115 nations in pledging to double energy efficiency standards and triple installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.

On the domestic front, Harris appeared at multiple groundbreakings for projects funded by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, otherwise known as the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law.

The legislation included the largest single investment in US power grid expansion, enabling the US Energy Department's newly formed Grid Deployment Office to offer targeted support for riskier new transmission lines.

One area of opportunity for Harris on mining issues, if elected, may lie in advancing US mineral interests abroad, said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute and professor of public policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

"If the wider US political stance with China becomes even more aggressive [than] this economic trade war we're in, then sure, you could see more specifics put into things like tax credits or more aggressive targets that we even have now," Bazilian said.

Any incoming Democratic administration is also likely to continue to pursue infrastructure permitting reforms, said John Jacobs, senior policy analyst in the Bipartisan Policy Center’s energy program.

"I just don't see this issue going away, and I think Congress is looking to do more," Jacobs said in an interview.

Past stances

Harris adopted positions to the left of Biden on energy and climate during the 2020 Democratic primary race, but what that might mean for her policy positions going forward is unclear.

"There's no daylight between her positioning on energy and environmental issues after the point at which she joined the Biden-Harris team in 2020," said Scott Segal, co-chair of Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group.

As a primary candidate, Harris supported the passage of the progressive Green New Deal, a nonbinding resolution that called for a 100% carbon-free electricity supply by 2030. During a 2019 CNN forum on climate change, Harris said she would support a ban on hydraulic fracturing.

"These are things that she never said again, and I would not expect those views to make another appearance," Segal said in a July 22 interview. "Remember, her job is to get elected by carrying more centrist, Democratic states that are more favorably disposed toward natural gas."

During her previous White House bid, Harris signed onto a pledge advanced by anti-oil activists that called for a climate test for all energy projects and canceling the permits for both the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines. Her primary campaign called for opposing new fossil fuel infrastructure and phasing out fossil fuel extraction on public lands.

While the White House has advocated for the consideration of climate impacts in energy project reviews, the administration has approved a large volume of fossil fuel infrastructure and continued oil and gas leasing.

Biden revoked the presidential permit for the heavy crude oil Keystone XL pipeline on his first day of office. However, the Dakota Access Pipeline is still pending with a key US Army Corps of Engineers final environmental impact statement now expected in 2025.

Also to be determined is the next administration's position on LNG export approvals after Biden launched a review of climate, economic, and national security impacts factoring into the public interest determination for non-free trade agreement nations.

The Sunrise Movement, a leading youth climate advocacy group, stopped short of endorsing Harris following Biden's announcement but pointed to her previous support for the Green New Deal in a series of social media posts. Stevie O'Hanlon, a Sunrise Movement spokesperson, said the group will make an endorsement after it holds a membership vote.

The Sierra Club said in a statement that it will "marshal its resources and grassroots power to guarantee the Biden-Harris legacy continues."

Segal highlighted Harris' record as California attorney general on enforcement and commitment to environmental justice as areas where a president may have leeway to act without backing from Congress.

"She had a long track record against various energy companies in California and also secured the $86 million settlement against Volkswagen AG on the diesel emissions issue," Segal noted.

Competing campaign messages

Trump and vice-presidential nominee JD Vance, the junior senator from Ohio, have made US energy production a core theme of the Republican campaign.

"So much starts with energy," Trump said last week during his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention. "Remember, we have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country by far."

Trump said he wants to lower consumer prices by making the US "energy dominant," eliciting chants from the crowd to drill for more oil.

"The former president does like to mention energy dominance and considers himself a bit of an aficionado on energy issues," Segal said.

The US Energy Information Administration expects the US to produce 13.44 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, an increase of 520,000 barrels per day over 2023 — the highest year on record.

Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners LLC, said the research firm expects a continued focus from the Democratic ticket on affordable gasoline prices and demonstrable climate action.

"To that point, a stepped-up emphasis on climate policy may offer a way to reinvigorate support from the under-30 voters whose turnout could potentially decide closely contested swing states," Book said in an email.