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Goldman Sachs cuts S&P 500 earnings forecast again on coronavirus fallout

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has lowered its outlook for the S&P 500 EPS in response to lower crude oil prices and interest rates, which will likely impair energy and financial companies. It marks the investment bank's second downward revision in short succession.

Goldman Sachs cut its 2020 EPS forecast to $157, the bank said in a research note, having lowered the estimate to $165 from $174 on Feb. 27 as the new coronavirus spread outside of China.

The bank now expects that on a quarterly basis, EPS will drop by around 15% in the second quarter of 2020 and a further 12% in the third quarter before rebounding by 12% in the fourth quarter and a further 11% in 2021.

The spread of the coronavirus from its epicenter in Wuhan, China, to the rest of the world already had global markets on the ropes, while the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production sent equities and bond yields tumbling globally March 9.

Goldman has now lowered its mid-year forecast for the S&P 500 to 2,450, down 15% from the close of March 10 level, and 28% lower than the peak. However, on the expectation that the effects of the coronavirus will begin to reduce, the bank expects a recovery in earnings and sentiment to boost the S&P 500 to 3,200 by the end of 2020.

The S&P 500 opened 2.5% lower at 2,810 today.

"At the sector level, we maintain our overweights in real estate and information technology and our underweights in energy, financials, healthcare and consumer sectors," Goldman Sachs Portfolio Strategy Research wrote in the note.