There is no shortage of green hydrogen project announcements globally, but commitments beyond the early planning stage remain rare, according to a new study by consultancy Aurora Energy Research.

Some 957 GW of electrolyzer projects are in development, the organization said Nov. 1 in its "Hydrogen Market Attractiveness Report," with the global pipeline having grown by 592 GW since April. Most of that increase stems from the planned 500-GW Spirit of Scotia project in Canada, pitched by Green Hydrogen International Corp. Unlike most projects in the pipeline, Spirit of Scotia does not yet have a targeted commissioning date.

"Hydrogen project announcements have not slowed despite today's energy crisis. Instead, 115 electrolyzer projects have been announced in the past six months," said Anise Ganbold, Aurora's head of hydrogen research. Excluding Spirit of Scotia, the global pipeline has grown by one quarter since April, Ganbold said in a statement.

Projects in planning dwarf the 270 MW of electrolyzer capacity online today, but only 11% of the pipeline has locked down specific locations, signed deals with technology providers or outlined development milestones, Aurora said.

In a net-zero scenario by 2050, European hydrogen demand would total 1,885 TWh, Aurora's modeling shows. The region currently consumes 300 TWh, and demand will grow to 480 TWh by 2030. Aurora expects the industrial sector to account for over 80% of hydrogen consumption until the mid-2030s. Usage in the transport sector is set to be roughly equal to industrial consumption by 2050.

"Hydrogen can play an essential role in achieving net-zero by 2050 in Europe and in the U.K.," Dilara Caglayan, senior associate on hydrogen at Aurora, said in a statement. "But, with new project announcements coming thick and fast, we now need to focus on risk mitigation and commercial support to unleash hydrogen's potential and realize the [350%]-500% rise in demand that Aurora forecasts."

Would-be developers in Europe, the global pioneer in green hydrogen policymaking, have bemoaned a lack of regulatory and financial certainty preventing many from signing final investment papers. Rules around the definition of green hydrogen have been the subject of fierce debate in the EU in 2022, and some executives said the U.S. is bound to surge ahead with an investor-friendly market environment created by the Inflation Reduction Act.

Germany is Europe's frontrunner in terms of projects that have progressed beyond early-stage proposals, with over 12 GW in the pipeline for 2030. The Netherlands follows with 10.8 GW, and the U.K. pipeline measures 4.8 GW. Austria and Finland have become more attractive markets in 2022 after governments introduced 1-GW capacity targets by 2030. So far, these countries only have 330 MW and 149 MW, respectively, in their pipelines, excluding early-stage plans, according to Aurora.

The report also identified key players behind the global pipeline of projects in advanced stages. French utility Engie SA is involved in the largest number of projects at 22, while Germany's RWE AG owns the largest project pipeline, at about 5 GW. Other major European players involved in advanced projects are Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Vattenfall AB and NV Nederlandse Gasunie.

Electrolyzer manufacturing will surpass 30 GW per year from 2025, Aurora said, with 70% of plants located in Europe. Belgium's John Cockerill SA is positioning itself as the largest global electrolyzer manufacturer by 2025, followed by German industrial group Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe AG. If all manufacturers run plants at maximum capacity, 231 GW of electrolyzers could be manufactured between today and 2030, the consultancy said.

European developers favor proton exchange membrane, or PEM, electrolyzers over alkaline electrolyzers, Aurora said. Six out of eight newly announced projects where electrolyzer equipment was mentioned will use PEM electrolyzers. PEM technology is said to be more expensive but also better at producing hydrogen with intermittent power.

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