Vietnamese banks' plans to raise at least $2.8 billion of capital in 2022 to fund growth can be an opportunity for foreign investors to carve a slice of economic activity in the emerging manufacturing hub.
Vietnam's banks will need to tap both domestic and foreign investors to meet their capital ambitions. The funding requirement by 17 of the 27 listed lenders in the country was outlined in a May 9 report by Vietnamplus, a state-run news agency. Based on announcements at banks' annual general meetings, Maybank Securities Vietnam estimates the funding requirement at the 17 lenders could be as high as $4.2 billion.
"If banks want to raise this amount of money and have good valuation, they also need to reach out to foreign investors," Quan Trong Thanh, head of research at Maybank Securities Vietnam told S&P Global Market Intelligence in a phone interview.
Vietnam has gained in status as a manufacturing hub and is increasingly becoming important to the global supply chain as companies around the world continue to diversify their manufacturing sources. Local banks are expected to continue to fund Vietnam's export-focused manufacturing sector, with the country's GDP expected to expand by 6% to 7.5% in the next three years, according to a Jan. 25 estimate by S&P Global Ratings.
Foreign investors
Eleven Vietnamese banks had foreign institutional shareholders owning more than 15% of their charter capital, with five other lenders at more than 25% foreign ownership as at June 30, 2021, Viet Nam News reported in December 2021. Vietnam allows strategic investors to own up to 20% equity in its banks, while organizations and individuals can own 15% and 5%, respectively, though total foreign ownership cannot exceed 30%.
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam has Mizuho Financial Group Inc. as a strategic investor with a 15% ownership, as does Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam with Hana Financial Group Inc. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. has 19.73% ownership in Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade.
Still, a 30%
"The domestic capital sources may not be sufficient enough, as local markets will have limited capacity, while foreign capital is constrained by the regulations in Vietnam that limit the maximum foreign shareholding in banks," Pandey said.
Low capital levels are one of the key risks associated with the banking sector, Pandey added.
The State Bank of Vietnam announced plans in 2018 to align local lenders with international standards. Bad assets were sold to Vietnam Asset Management Co., and joint stock commercial banks in Vietnam were required to list by 2020. Only four banks remain to be listed now, and that is no longer a high priority, Maybank's Quan said. By 2025, the central bank aims to have two to three commercial banks among the top 100 largest banks by total assets in Asia.
On June 11, state news agency Viet Nam News reported that the local government aims to reduce the number of credit institutions, settle legacy bad debt, and push for banks to have higher capital adequacy ratios of 10% to 11% by 2023, and at least 11% to 12% by 2025.
Banks in Vietnam have a median return of average assets of 1.29% in 2021, higher than Asia-Pacific's 0.67%, according to S&P Capital IQ Pro.
Banks in Vietnam are also expected to migrate to Basel II norms by January 2023, according to the central bank's plans. The goal was pushed back from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the revised requirements, banks will be expected to have a capital adequacy ratio of 8%. Two-thirds of banks have also already met the 11% to 12% capital adequacy ratio levels that will be mandatory in 2025, according to Market Intelligence data.