Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Feb. 25 that the new coronavirus poses a risk to the global economy, but it is too early to say how it will affect U.S. growth.
The U.S. economy is in a "good place," and the Fed's baseline outlook suggests it will remain there in 2020, Clarida said in a speech. But the Federal Open Market Committee is "closely monitoring" the spread of the coronavirus, Clarida said, saying it is likely to have a "noticeable impact" on Chinese growth in the first quarter.
"The disruption there could spill over to the rest of the global economy," Clarida said at a National Association for Business Economics conference in Washington, D.C. "But it is still too soon to even speculate about either the size or the persistence of these effects, or whether they will lead to a material change in the outlook."
Clarida's comments are the latest instance of Fed officials acknowledging the risks posed by the spread of the virus but expressing uncertainty about its ultimate economic effects.
"Although FOMC officials have not indicated a desire to cut just yet (as indicated by Vice Chair Clarida), the conversation is clearly on the table," Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients after Clarida's speech.
Stock markets have fallen from their record highs in recent days largely due to investors' worries over the novel coronavirus, which first appeared in Wuhan, China, but has since spread to Italy, South Korea and Japan, among other countries. More than 80,000 people have been infected and about 2,700 have died, mostly in China, according to Johns Hopkins University's Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
The worries have prompted futures markets to begin pricing in expectations of a Fed rate cut this year, with the CME Group's FedWatch tool showing a roughly 58% chance of the Fed easing in April as of 2:11 p.m. ET.
In a Q&A session after his speech, Clarida reiterated recent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank will look for any economic effects from the coronavirus that are "material or persistent."
The Fed's benchmark interest rate, which the central bank cut three times in 2019, likely "will remain appropriate" as long as the U.S. economic outlook does not see major shifts, Clarida said in his prepared remarks.
But policy is "not on a preset course," and the Federal Open Market Committee will "proceed on a meeting-by-meeting basis" as it evaluates its next steps.
"Of course, if developments emerge that, in the future, trigger a material reassessment of our outlook, we will respond accordingly," Clarida said.