European nations will undertake about 50 GW of new offshore wind auctions in 2024, according to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, as governments double down on their efforts to meet 2030 renewables targets.

The road map spans established markets around the North Sea, such as the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark, as well as relative newcomers Norway, Ireland and Finland, which are in the early stages of tapping into their offshore wind resources.

The auctions aim to usher through new capacity for delivery in the late 2020s or early 2030s, helping Europe expand its offshore wind fleet from the more than 33 GW installed today.

Industry executives see 2024 as a pivotal year in getting the sector back on track in Europe after multiple setbacks in 2023, when developers grappled with supply chain issues and the realities of higher project costs.

READ: Offshore wind execs push for bidding reform as Europe prepares for 2024 auctions

In the UK, the second-largest offshore wind market globally, Swedish utility Vattenfall AB suspended development of a 1.4-GW project, and an offtake auction failed to attract even a single bid from an offshore wind farm.

"We're on a roller coaster," said Danielle Lane, head of offshore development for the UK and Ireland at Germany's RWE AG. "Fundamentally, offshore wind is still a great business. And Europe needs it ... if we're going to decarbonize our electricity system."

RWE bought the rights to Vattenfall's 4.2-GW Norfolk development zone in December 2023.

'We need volume'

The road map of European auctions includes processes that are due to either launch or conclude in 2024, spanning everything from early-stage seabed lease sales to centralized bidding rounds and competitions for offtake contracts.

Among the most hotly anticipated is the sixth contracts for difference (CFD) auction in the UK, which the industry hopes will make up for 2023's failed bidding round.

Developers blamed the failure on a bid ceiling that was too low in an environment of rising project costs. The result prompted the UK government to increase the price cap for the 2024 auction by 66%, from £44/MWh to £73/MWh in 2012 prices.

As it stands, more than 8 GW of potential offshore wind farms are eligible to bid in Allocation Round 6, according to lobby group RenewableUK, including projects developed by RWE, Ørsted A/S, Iberdrola SA, SSE PLC and TotalEnergies SE. The eventual figure could be even higher if other developments receive consent in time and Ørsted bids part of the 2.9-GW Hornsea 3 into the auction as planned, after making a final investment decision in late 2023.

After the setback of the last auction, the UK's two subsequent rounds need to deliver between 10 GW and 12 GW of offshore wind if the country's 50-GW target is to be met by 2030, SSE executives said in November 2023.

The outcome will hinge on the size of the CFD budget, which needs to be big enough to allow a decent portion of the potential capacity to come through, according to Lane.

"There's no point in setting a [higher] price if only one project goes through," Lane said in an interview. "If we're looking at stimulating the supply chain and meeting our climate goals, then we need volume."

Bulging pipeline

In Continental Europe, Germany plans to tender 8 GW of new offshore wind capacity in 2024. In 2023, a 7-GW auction structured with an uncapped financial bidding phase saw BP PLC and TotalEnergies agree to pay a combined €12.6 billion for the rights to develop the projects.

The Netherlands is set to follow a similar path in 2024 when it embarks on its 4-GW IJmuiden Ver auction. While the tender requires bidders to meet certain nonprice criteria, it also features a financial bidding element capped at €420 million per year for the duration of the 40-year permit, or €33.6 billion in total across the two 2-GW sites.

Meanwhile, Denmark will kick-start around 9 GW of offshore wind auctions in 2024 across five separate sites, with bids for the first three, representing about 7 GW, due by the end of 2024.

While there is legitimate debate about the design of the German, Dutch and Danish auctions, the countries also have "very good offshore wind conditions [and] very good offtake markets," said Martin Neubert, chief investment officer and partner at Danish investor Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners P/S.

Elsewhere in Europe, France is expected to announce the winners of four separate tenders that have been in process for some time, including the 1.5-GW Normandy 2 and 1-GW Sud-Atlantique auctions for fixed-bottom wind farms. Two floating wind tenders, Sud de la Bretagne and Méditerranée, are also poised to announce winners shortly.

France should move to multisite awards to help reduce costs for both the government and developers, according to Grzegorz Gorski, COO of Ocean Winds SL, the offshore wind joint venture between Engie SA and EDP Renováveis SA.

Such a move would also bring "welcome diversification" in the country's offshore wind development scene, Gorski said, with state-owned Electricité de France SA having been part of the winning consortium in five of the country's previous eight tenders.

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