EU's shift to the right to encumber climate lawmaking, but Green Deal still on

With votes still being counted after the European Union's parliamentary elections June 6–9, much of the expected right-wing emergence has materialized. Green parties suffered in much of Europe, although results were varied across member states.

The outcome could slow the pace of legislation and implementation of climate policy, analysts said, but the wider net-zero vision remains in place.

Provisional results at 5 p.m. Central European Time on June 10 show the center-right European People's Party (EPP) bloc, to which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen belongs, gaining 10 seats, with the European Conservatives and Reformists to their right gaining four.

The far-right Identity and Democracy group grew by nine seats compared to the 2019 elections, while the Socialists and Democrats and the far-left group remained largely stable.

The Greens have so far lost 18 seats, while the liberal Renew Europe group has lost 23.

In the EU's largest nations, Germany and France, right-wing groups will be sending more representatives to Brussels.

"The Parliament is moving significantly further to the right. This shift could have a particular impact on the areas of climate, migration, [EU] enlargement, budget and rule of law," said Jana Puglierin, head of think tank the European Council on Foreign Relations' office in Berlin.

"Legislation on climate and environmental protection, such as the recent Nature Restoration Law, could only just be pushed through. This will become even more difficult in the future," Puglierin said in a June 10 email.

While the EU's climate and energy vision remains intact, it will need to be balanced with affordability and competitiveness on the global stage, according to Coralie Laurencin, senior director on the power and climate policy team at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"The commitment to decarbonization is still here, but the next European leadership will look carefully at the pace [and] the time frame and keep a close eye on what other geographies are doing," Laurencin said.

Decarbonization efforts are now proposed under a banner of resilience, economic growth and energy independence, not unlike how climate policy is framed in the US, the analyst said.

"This narrative has legs among all parties," Laurencin said. "There is a strong view that the market for clean tech is promising, and Europe wants to develop these first to sell them on to other geographies who later make similar climate commitments, instead of finding it has missed the boat and has to import technologies."

Green Deal is still on

Among the current European Commission's milestone climate moves was the European Green Deal, a pledge to make the EU the world's first carbon-neutral continent by 2050. On the way there, the EU committed to reducing emissions 55% by 2030, a target that Commodity Insights analysts expect will be missed.

The work done under the von der Leyen commission is unlikely to be cast away.

"Despite important gains, far-right parties don't have a majority without EPP to dismantle the European Green Deal," Neil Makaroff, director of think tank Strategic Perspectives, said in a June 10 statement. "The responsibility is on other political forces to form a new and stable coalition that addresses the concerns of Europeans: the cost of living and energy price crisis, the risk of deindustrialization and rising inequalities."

Continuing the net-zero transition agenda in the upcoming mandate is a "strategic choice to reposition the EU on the map of industrial powers" and a choice to create green jobs while reducing energy bills, Makaroff said. "Such a plan could cement a coalition between the EPP, Socialists and Democrats, Renew and the Greens."

Upcoming negotiations to form a majority in the European Parliament cannot ignore the challenges of dependency on energy imports, Europe lagging behind China in the buildup of its net-zero industries, and a two-speed Europe with some member states unable to pay enough toward their energy transitions and clean industries, Makaroff said.

"The transition is not seen as affordable for households, especially in the middle of a cost of living crisis. More attention on the social dimension will be needed," the analyst added.

While Green messages failed to resonate in many countries, there were also exceptions. In Sweden and Finland, Green parties grew their representation while right-wing parties lost seats.

"The voters have shown that they want the EU to run strong climate and environmental policy that is in line with what science demands," said Alice Bah Kuhnke, member of European Parliament for the Swedish Green Party.