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EU nations target Baltic Sea's untapped wind potential in shift away from Russia

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Arkona wind park in Germany's Baltic Sea.
Source: Axel Schmidt/Getty Images News via Getty Images

EU nations surrounding the Baltic Sea are looking to the region's untapped offshore wind potential to help reduce their dependence on Russian energy imports.

Eight countries — Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland and Sweden — unveiled a new ambition Aug. 30 to build at least 19.6 GW of wind capacity in the Baltic Sea by 2030. That is more than the installed wind capacity in the entire EU today and seven times the Baltic Sea's current capacity.

The deployment of offshore turbines is seen as one lever in the countries' push for energy independence from Russia, and follows a sweeping plan from the EU to accelerate the bloc's energy transition while cutting Russian ties.

"In the Baltic Sea ... we are [at] the front line of European energy security, and we are sharing a huge potential for offshore wind," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said at a news conference in Copenhagen with other political leaders. "We need to put all necessary instruments to use to free us from [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's gas and energy."

Germany, Europe's biggest buyer of Russian gas, is moving to reduce its energy demand ahead of the winter. Some of the smaller Baltic nations are among the most heavily exposed to Russian gas historically but are also shifting away. Finland's gas deliveries from Russia were halted in May, while Lithuania began refusing Russian gas imports in early April.

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Favorable conditions

Lobby group WindEurope expects 93 GW of offshore wind in the Baltic Sea by 2050 out of a forecast 450 GW in the whole of Europe. The majority of capacity in the EU will be built in the North Sea, led by Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium, which in May increased their 2030 target to 65 GW.

"Nothing compares to the North Sea," said Gary Bills, COO for wind and solar development at UAB Ignitis Renewables, a green energy company operating in the Baltics. "There's slightly less wind resource [in the Baltic Sea compared to the North Sea] but certainly plenty for offshore wind."

The Baltic Sea is also "nowhere near as fierce as the North Sea or the Atlantic," Bills said in an interview. The region has good wave and tide conditions that are helpful for offshore construction and maintenance, along with waters that, at depths of about 30 meters to 50 meters for the early projects, are not overly deep, the executive added.

The relative proximity of the Baltic Sea nations also raises the prospect of cross-border wind farms, which the eight nations agreed to jointly explore. The Kriegers Flak project in Denmark's Baltic Sea already feeds power into both the Danish and German power grids, with other cross-border projects also in the works.

The European Commission "strongly supports the regional energy integration of the Baltic Sea," EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said in a statement. "Further steps toward the interconnectedness of the region will significantly strengthen Europe’s energy security and our green energy ambitions"

Cross-border wind farms will help nations "save space and money," according to a WindEurope spokesperson. This could be especially beneficial for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which still operate in a synchronous mode with the Russian and Belarusian electricity systems.

"They've in the past years built interconnectors with the rest of Europe but building offshore wind can help them even more in this sense," the spokesperson said in an email. "So cross-border cooperation can be very influential in this region."

Attracting major players

Just 2.8 GW of wind capacity is in operation in the Baltic Sea today — the vast majority to the west in Germany and Denmark, both of which are established offshore wind markets with coastlines that also sit on the North Sea.

Among the more nascent Baltic nations for offshore wind, Poland has emerged as the frontrunner. The Polish government handed contracts to several local and international energy groups in 2021, including Denmark's Ørsted A/S and Germany's RWE AG, to build the country's first offshore projects.

Other major offshore wind developers have also made inroads in Poland and other Baltic markets. Spain's Iberdrola SA has early stage projects in Poland and Sweden, while Swedish state-owned Vattenfall AB recently secured approval for a 640-MW project in its home market.

"It is good that the countries around the Baltic Sea now have agreed ... on a vision to reduce dependence on Russian energy offshore wind power plays an important role there," a Vattenfall spokesperson said in an email.

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