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Bank of America says credit remains pristine despite recession worries

Credit performance at Bank of America Corp. remains "really strong" and the bank is still on track for an above-average year for lending growth, CFO Alastair Borthwick said.

Consumer spending and household deposit balances continue to grow, he said at an investor conference on June 13, despite mounting fears over a downturn.

"The consumer is just in great shape," Borthwick said. "Where we first look is, is there anything in 90 days past due, or 30 to 60, or even five days? There has been no material change there at all."

He added that upgrades of ratings in the bank's commercial portfolio have outnumbered downgrades two to one so far this quarter as sectors like travel and restaurants continue to recover from the pandemic.

"There's a dichotomy. There's this question of what will happen in the future, and there's what are we seeing right now," he said. "What we're seeing right now is credit is in great shape." He said he would expect credit measures to bounce around because they are at such low levels, and possibly gravitate toward higher historical norms over time, "but we don't see that right now."

Borthwick reiterated the bank's guidance that its net interest income will increase by about $650 million sequentially in the second quarter, and that the growth will "accelerate again" in the third quarter. The bank still hopes that its deposit beta, or the amount by which changes in interest rates flow through to deposit costs, will be slightly lower than the last time the Federal Reserve tightened policy, although the prospect that the Fed will ultimately raise rates higher this time creates some uncertainty.

He said that bank expects high single-digit percentage loan growth this year, helped by strong economic growth and recovering credit line utilization rates for commercial customers and lower payment rates for consumers.

Borthwick also reiterated that trading revenues, helped by market volatility, are on track to increase 10% to 15% in the second quarter over the year prior, though the environment continues to be challenging for investment banking, especially in equity capital markets.