The price of antimony doubled in July and hit a record $22,750 per metric ton Aug. 6, driven by supply challenges and increasing applications in the energy transition.

Demand for the silvery metal has been rising for bullet manufacturing and solar panels, analysts told S&P Global Commodity Insights. It is commonly used as a flame retardant and lead hardener and as an ingredient in glass-making.

The market for antimony is relatively small, with global production at 83,000 metric tons in 2023, according to estimates by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The metal has gained critical mineral status in the US, EU and other regions due to its limited availability outside China, and now supply in China is also strained.

"There's been continued decline in supply, and now with growth in demand, even with [Russian producer] PJSC Polyus producing, you are just about bringing the market back into balance. So there is a need for more material to come online," Nils Backeberg, founder and director of critical materials research firm Project Blue, said in an interview.

The previous high for antimony was $17,050/t in April and May 2011, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The price spike this summer is "likely related to stockpiles having been drawn down to critical levels and not enough feed entering China," Backeberg said.

Changing times, changing demand

Antimony is mainly used in flame retardants and lead-acid batteries, but the solar panel sector is creating strong demand growth.

"Antimony has always been used in glass as a clarifying agent," Backeberg explained. "It actually removes microbubbles, and that makes the glass more transparent. And in a solar application, the more transparent the glass, [the more] you can improve the efficiency."

The glass sector's share of total antimony demand has risen from 3% in 2015 to an estimated 17% in 2024, Project Blue data shows.

"It's really only in the last one-and-a-half to two years where antimony has ramped up in demand in this application," Backeberg added. "You don't need antimony to make a solar panel, but it's the efficiency it adds that makes it quite important."

There is also increased use in the military sector, said Christopher Ecclestone, a principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Co., a mining and commodities research firm.

"For a long time, people didn't worry about the military usage because bullets were stored up for a war that was to come. The war has now come. And so antimony is being used up on a daily basis in the [Russia-Ukraine] war," Ecclestone said.

A mix of declining supply and growing demand is causing antimony prices to skyrocket. Project Blue forecasts prices stabilizing at $14,000/t to $15,000/t over the next few years "because above that, we do start to see some substitution [of materials]," Backeberg said.

Supply dries up

China accounted for 89.8% of mine production of antimony as recently as 2010, according to USGS data. But the nation now faces a massive drop in reserves and resources, Ecclestone and Backeberg said.

"If you overexploit any commodity, as China has done, you end up not having enough of it yourself," Ecclestone said.

China accounted for 48.2% of global antimony mine production in 2023, USGS data shows.

Polyus, the Russian gold producer, started selling antimony as a byproduct from the Olimpiada mine in 2018 with the aim of taking 15% of the market, but the mine significantly reduced antimony production starting in 2021.

"Because gold prices ramped up with COVID, Polyus focused on that revenue, and supply of antimony fell off. And the market went back into deficit after having a structural surplus," Backeberg said.

"Polyus did produce a lot of antimony last year after being basically off the market for two years," the research director added. "That supply basically helped smelters meet demand, but [the market] was still very tight. And our understanding is that not all of that material has made it across to China."

Polyus produced 27,075 metric tons of antimony in 2023, the company's annual results report shows. The US sanctioned Polyus that year because of the Russia-Ukraine war; despite the sanctions, the company's structural importance to the antimony market is unchanged, analysts said.

"The pricing power in the entire market may have moved from China to Russia because the Russians have swing supply," Ecclestone said, adding that antimony production outside Russia from artisanal miners and other producers has also declined.

Mandalay Resources Corp.'s Costerfield mine is the only operating antimony mine in Australia, and its production has been on a steady decline for the past three years. Perpetua Resources Corp.'s Stibnite gold-antimony mine is set to become the only US source of antimony.

Another major supplier has been the antimony-gold project in Tajikistan owned by TALCO Gold, which is jointly owned by Tajik Aluminium Co. and China's Tibet Huayu Mining Co. Ltd.