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Analysts' targets imply doubling of stock price for 4 US banks

The pressure on bank stocks has led to greater upside potential for some depositories.

Four U.S. banks could see their stock prices double based on analysts' consensus one-year price target as of June 16, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. A similar analysis in March found that no bank had an implied upside higher than 45.1%.

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In this analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence examined U.S. bank stocks trading in relation to analysts' consensus mean price targets as of June 16. Only stocks covered by at least three analysts and trading above $5 per share were included. In addition, only companies trading below analysts' mean 2022 price target and with a buy strength of 50% or more are shown, or companies trading above analyst's mean price target and with a buy strength below 50%, are shown.

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Highest implied upside

La Jolla, Calif.-based Silvergate Capital Corp. had the largest implied upside in the U.S. banking industry at 178.9% as of June 16. The company's stock has recently taken a beating due to the downturn in cryptocurrency prices, but 10 of the 11 analysts covering the company give it a "buy" or better recommendation.

Earlier this month, Wells Fargo Securities analyst Jared Shaw initiated coverage on Silvergate with an "overweight" rating and a $120 price target, which was more than double the company's share price as of June 16.

In addition, B. Riley Securities analyst Steve Moss said he still favors companies like Silvergate with focused businesses and "unique" growth potential.

Wilmington, Del.-based The Bancorp Inc. had the second-highest implied upside at 123.7% as well as a 100% buy rating from its covering analysts.

West Reading, Pa.-based Customers Bancorp Inc. and New York-based Signature Bank rounded out the top four with implied upsides of 110.0% and 101.4%, respectively.

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Only one stock trading above its consensus target price

Oklahoma City-based BancFirst Corp. was the only company trading above analysts' one-year price target as of June 16, a substantial decrease from March, when 10 companies were trading above that mark.

According to a recent S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis, BancFirst was trading at a price-to-estimated 2022 EPS multiple of 19.4x as of June 15, the third-highest multiple in the industry.

Bank stocks in a downward trend

Over the last year, the S&P US BMI Banks Index has returned -20.5% through June 16, compared to an 11.9% slide for the S&P 500. The bank index surged ahead of the S&P 500 earlier this year as investors anticipated the positive effects interest rate hikes would have on bank income statements, but that optimism has since been overshadowed by fears of persistent inflation and a slowing economy.

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