Imports to the U.S. by port of lading in October maintained the same trend seen in overall imports, showing a slowdown in growth as imports in the comparable period of 2020 increased month over month after COVID-19-related lockdowns were lifted. October was the highest month for imports in 2020, and with record imports in October 2021 hitting the peak of logistical capacity — as discussed in Panjiva research of Nov. 10 — the result is lower year-over-year growth.

Imports originating from Chinese and European ports increased 6.9% and 5.5%, respectively, outperforming the total growth rate of 3.1% year over year. Imports originating from ports in all other locations fell 1.3% year over year, likely due to the congestion across global supply chains as more robust seaborne links with China and Europe can push through additional volume.

The capacity bottlenecks have exposed a shortage of truckers, chassis and containers that enable port operations by moving goods inland. Mismatches in supply and demand for these services — for example, chassis not being owned by the shipper that needs them — have caused containers to pile up in port yards. The Port of Los Angeles had 65,000 empty containers sitting in the week of Nov. 18, according to London's Financial Times. These are needed at inland destinations to facilitate exports or to return to Asia to carry the next load of imports.

Part of the issue may be a surge in empty container imports that did not end up at their final destinations, demonstrating a bullwhip effect from earlier in 2021 when containers were stuck inland. Imports of empty containers to the U.S. increased 939.2% year over year in October, Panjiva data shows, and by 1,929% compared with October 2019. On the forwarder side, imports of empty containers by Kuehne + Nagel International AG, or K+N, and Expeditors Inc. increased 13.5% and 140.9% year over year, respectively.

Forwarders' performance in Panjiva's U.S. seaborne import data shows a strong October for Amazon.com Inc., with imports up 77.1% year over year. Amazon's rapid growth in forwarding shows how much the firm is using logistics to fuel its e-commerce business, with the caveat of starting from a smaller base than more established carriers.

K+N and DSV A/S were at the high end of the month as well, up 16.4% and 13.5% year over year, respectively. These are lower than the year-over-year increase recorded in the third quarter, but match the slowing growth rate of U.S. imports and the growing evidence that companies addressed holiday congestion by shipping goods earlier.

At the other end of the scale, Honour Lane Shipping Ltd. saw October imports fall 33.5% year over year after a 9.0% decrease in volume in the third quarter. Part of this decline could be related to the company reportedly exploring a sale, according to Bloomberg News. Meanwhile, Orient Star Holdings LLC posted a decline in imports during the month, down 24.5% year over year from an increase of 4.5% year over year in the third quarter. This could be an extreme example of the early-shipping strategy, as the firm saw a large decline in furniture imports, which accounted for 16.0% of its volume in the first 10 months of 2021.

Eric Oak is a researcher at Panjiva, a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. This content does not constitute investment advice, and the views and opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Links are current at the time of publication. S&P Global Market Intelligence is not responsible if those links are unavailable later.