2022 broadband forecast shifts to market share battle with intense competition

The U.S. residential broadband outlook is increasingly dominated by market share battles amid surging investment and technological advance as residential service penetrations exceed 90% of occupied households.

Telcos are keying in on fiber upgrades, carriers are fueling 5G fixed wireless residential and commercial broadband replacement, upstarts are readying fleets of orbiting alternatives and cable is fortifying with a mix of DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber of its own.

Behind it all is private investment aimed at capturing high-margin revenue and surging public money, most notably the federal push for better high-speed internet accessibility through the $42.45 billion Broadband Equity Access and Deployment, or BEAD, project. The subsidies promise to turn up the heat on the entire sector.

According to Kagan's update forecast, U.S. residential broadband subscriptions are on track to top 122 million at the end of 2022. There simply are not enough subscribers to accommodate the growth ambitions of each segment. Cable operators believe they can continue to take market share, the telcos believe they can steal momentum with fiber, the wireless services believe 5G is their answer to residential substitution and the satellite services believe they can elevate access everywhere.

Market share outlook:

• Cable — Hybrid-fiber coax networks continue to dominate residential broadband alongside aggressive buildout plans. We estimate the segment is positioned to limit market share loss amid intensifying competition with 61.9% through 2026.
• Telcos — Fiber upgrades offer a broadband makeover, but legacy copper-limits upside. We forecast the segment can reverse the pattern of declines but is positioned for share to slip below 25% by 2026.
• Wireless — Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile are ramping up fixed wireless networks and targeting both rural and non-rural areas. We expect wireless-only homes are poised to grow from 8% to 12.6% of broadband subs by 2026.
• Satellite — The next generation of satellite broadband offers more room for optimism, but unfavorable cost and speed comparisons limit growth expectations. A niche service for the residential space, we expect its slice of the pie to hold at 1% through 2026.