Monthly PMI Bulletin: December 2024

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Monthly PMI Bulletin. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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Global growth accelerates amid varying performance by region

The global economic expansion accelerated in November, but variations by region were observed amid the looming US tariffs threat. Meanwhile inflationary pressures remained muted and business confidence improved slightly in the penultimate month of 2024.

The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global - registered 52.4 in November, up from 52.3 in October. The latest reading signalled that the rate of global growth accelerated to a three-month high and is consistent with the global economy growing at an annualized rate of 2.7%.

The latest expansion continued to be driven by the service sector. Although manufacturing growth accelerated globally to a five-month high, its expansion was only very modest. Growth in the goods producing sector was underpinned by emerging market expansions, partly in response to stockpiling amidst the US tariffs threat. On the other hand, developed economies reported a deepening manufacturing downturn.

By region, the US saw the strongest expansion of the major developed markets for a seventh straight month, with growth reaching the fastest since April 2022 as a surge in services activity offset a fall in factory output. Growth also revived in Canada. In contrast, eurozone output fell at the sharpest rate for ten months as a deepening factory downturn spread to services. The UK meanwhile joined Australia and Japan in reporting largely stalled growth.

India once again led growth among the four BRIC 'emerging' economies by a wide margin, as has been the case since July 2022, but growth perked up to a five-month high in mainland China, fuelled by government stimulus and rising export shipments ahead of feared US tariffs

The latest acceleration in global growth was accompanied by an improvement in business confidence. Sentiment among businesses rose to a six-month high as demand improved and cost of living pressures eased. That said, anecdotal evidence pointed to concerns over rising uncertainties over global trade protectionism, which we will be watching the impact of in the upcoming flash PMI releases on December 16th.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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