Maritime and Trade Talk - Trade Outlook: Response to Geopolitical Events

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In this episode, Dr. Jakub M. Kwiatkowski(opens in a new tab), a senior economist within the Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS) Forecasting team of S&P Global Market Intelligence(opens in a new tab) talks about the trends in trade shaped by current geopolitical changes and anticipated shifts in trade following international policies and agreements, including:

• Historical quarterly perspective and evaluate the factors that are currently shaping trade like conflicts, trade sanctions and energetic policy
• Trade forecast in GTAS for Q3 2022
• Trade projections which include shifts in trade caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict, sanctions put on Russia, increasing inflation prices, unstable supply chains, current sanctions put on Taiwan by mainland China and changes caused by new energetic policies with consideration of different affect on various modes of transportation

Using GTAS trade predictions, Jakub analyzed the rearrangements in European trade and alternative energy sources for countries after the sanctions implementation on imports from Russia, and discuss the anticipated global trend and the alignment of trade movement with macroeconomic forecasts.

Trade value

• The model predicts the value of global trade to go up to USD 21,277 billion in 2022 and USD 21,347 billion in 2023
• GTAS Forecasting anticipates a year-on-year increase in the value of global trade by -0.9% in 2022 and by 0.5% in 2023 (-0.3% and 2.8% previously)

Trade volume

• The global merchandise trade volume forecast is to grow to 14,930 MMT in 2022 and 15,236 MMT in 2023
• It points to a slowdown in 2022 and recovery in 2023 with year-on-year growth rates of -0.5% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023 (-0.2% and 2.1% previously)

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.