UK retailers under scrutiny
Major macroeconomic forecasts were the order of the day, but UK retailers served a reminder that idiosyncratic factors are also important.
Marks & Spencer posted its second-quarter results today and they were a mixed bag. Total like-for-like UK sales increased by 1.1%, a better than expected performance. The food division was up 3.2%, more than making up for continued weakness in the general merchandise business.
But the latter segment saw its gross margins drop sharply, which had a damaging impact on the headline profit figure. M&S said this was due to one-off factors relating to the launch of its autumn/winter clothing range, and the reaction of the CDS market suggests that investors are giving it the benefit of the doubt.
The company's spreads tightened 2bps to 146bps, and have rallied nearly 80bps from the wide levels reached in June. It still trades wider than many of its peers and this may be due to LBO risk, as well as concerns about its operational performance.
Tesco competes against M&S, albeit in a lower price bracket, and its spreads trade considerably tighter at 76bps. They were unchanged today, despite news that it was selling €1bn in new debt. The four- and seven-year bonds were denominated in euros, which was unusual for Tesco as it usually borrows in sterling.
US telecoms firm AT&T also came to the market today with a euro issue - the currency is a cheap borrowing option at the current time.
Corporate results aside, the markets digested several pieces of economic news. Markit PMIs for China and the UK were better than expected, and the US ISM survey also painted a positive picture. However, one could argue that strong economic data is negative for risk assets, as it could hasten QE tapering.
The broader credit markets certainly didn't react well, with the Markit iTraxx Europe widening by 1.5bps to 85bps and the Markit CDX.NA.IG giving up almost 2bps to trade at 75bps. Downbeat economic forecasts from the European Commission may have dampened sentiment - the periphery looks set to stagnate for many years yet, and this could threaten eurozone stability further down the line.