US-China Decoupling Insights
Get a complete view on the impact of the decoupled system that increases disruption for specific countries, sectors and supply chains.
The US-mainland China relationship that has underpinned globalization for decades has begun to unravel, with far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences for business operations around the world. A dispute that centered around commercial issues of trade, investment, currency, market access, and intellectual property rights as recently as 2018 has rapidly expanded to into a broad political rivalry that encompasses geopolitical alliances, state security, and public health. What will shift in policy and geopolitical relations mean for business between these nations, sourcing opportunities, and growth in existing business? Are you prepared?
Learn more about our work on US China Decoupling
We can help you navigate the economic, geopolitical, and trade shifts coming
How S&P Global can support your business
- Scenario analysis for crisis management and strategic planning
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Whether we are looking at policy changes, political upheaval, trade wars, or security concerns, our team will develop specific scenario reports and pathways for policy responses, economic shifts, and industry challenges. We offer insights into the dynamics relevant for your exposures and sectors of interest enabling you to set a steady path forward amidst uncertainty.
Working closely with you to explore relevant scenarios and impacts:
Scenarios workshop
2 hours led by our economists, country risk and industry experts. The workshop convenes senior leadership representatives from across your business to ensure all perspectives are captured. The workshop would include a brief presentation of our US-China Decoupling scenarios, followed by a brainstorming session to identify your top concerns in terms of business impacts, before exploring geopolitical and industry themes and indicators leading to these.
Customized scenario reports and pathways and impacts
Based on insights captured during the workshop, we will build up to three bespoke macro-level 5-year scenarios, with associated sets of geopolitical and industry indicators to monitor, and qualitative and quantitative assessment of impacts, for approval by your team before delivery in a final report.
Quarterly update reports
To help you track developments and which scenario is becoming more likely, we provide quarterly update reports in the following 12-month period containing alerts and analysis of which indicators have been triggered that are relevant to the scenarios and associated impacts.
- Opportunity assessments
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Evaluate specific opportunities or ventures in light of new and evolving challenges. Work with us to understand how politics, economics, trade, and industry dynamics will affect the opportunity at hand – any risks introduced by the decoupling and the impacts it is generating, and how to quantify these effectively.
Working closely with you to explore market entry and opportunity assessments. Support can include:
Risk quantification
We help you asses the economic, demographic, and risk conditions of new partners and sourcing locations including origin markets that already support a product or segment, and origin markets that produce adjacent products or segments.
Sourcing strategy
Our experts can help you set a strategy that is resilient to local, regional, and global events. Are there hidden or underlying risks that exist across your current strategy that weaken your diversification?
Customized reports for emerging markets
Deep dives on the emerging markets you identify as core to your sourcing plans. We provide actionable insights into the stakeholder and competitive landscape, untapped industry and regulatory trends to exploit, quantifying and qualifying new opportunities, and comparative benchmarking of similar markets in a region. Our analysis is always forward-looking, taking critical challenges like the pandemic into account.
- Expert briefings
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Our experts across country risk and geopolitics, economics and industry, and sourcing and supply chain track global developments and indicators on a daily basis to form views on what it all means for our clients.
Executive workshops and custom presentations
Our experts are available to interact directly with your executive teams in workshops and custom presentations to inform decision makings, help untangle the significance and impacts of global developments from the decoupling. We work with you to understand how politics, economics and industry dynamics will affect the opportunity at hand – any risks introduced by rivalry between the US and China, and how to quantify these effectively. Book now
Shorter single-issue discussions or meetings can be booked through Experts by S&P Global
Built on a foundation of excellence in custom solutions, and scenario creation
Scenarios
- Geopolitical scenarios Understand the political and policy implications from US-China decoupling and how these changes will impact political stability, industry, global economies, supply chains and more.
- Industry Scenarios Our experts can help you understand which industries and geographies will feel the consequences of the decoupling.
- Economic Scenarios Understand how decoupling will effect commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary and financial policy, energy prices, demographics and more as you build your new strategic plans.
Custom Solutions
- Economic Impact Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact due to new trade rules? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
- Gov Revenue Quantify how the china-US decoupling could impact, positively or negatively, your jurisdictions’ capacity to plan, budget and deliver vital public services.
- Integrity Due Diligence A commercial view on any possible risks you could face with a new sourcing partner, as well as an assessment of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses.
- Stakeholder Influence Mapping With decoupling comes new partnerships, get an independent assessment of which risks are likely to serve as priorities for potential investors and examples from other jurisdictions on how these risks have impacted inward investment.
- Economic Impact Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact from new opportunities due to decoupling? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
Modelling
- Country Risk Investment Model Utilizing our country expertise, sector analysis, and granular risk scores we can forecasts and measure the expected financial impact decoupling could have on cash flows and investment returns and activities.
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