Listen: Maritime and Trade Talk | Episode 11: Trade Outlook - Response To Geopolitical Events

In this episode, Dr. Jakub M. Kwiatkowski, a senior economist within the Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS) Forecasting team of S&P Global Market Intelligence talks about the trends in trade shaped by current geopolitical changes and anticipated shifts in trade following international policies and agreements, including:

• Historical quarterly perspective and evaluate the factors that are currently shaping trade like conflicts, trade sanctions and energetic policy
• Trade forecast in GTAS for Q3 2022
• Trade projections which include shifts in trade caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict, sanctions put on Russia, increasing inflation prices, unstable supply chains, current sanctions put on Taiwan by mainland China and changes caused by new energetic policies with consideration of different affect on various modes of transportation

Using GTAS trade predictions, Jakub analyzed the rearrangements in European trade and alternative energy sources for countries after the sanctions implementation on imports from Russia, and discuss the anticipated global trend and the alignment of trade movement with macroeconomic forecasts.

Dr. Jakub M. Kwiatkowski - Senior Economist, Global Trade Forecasting, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence Jakub is a senior economist within the GTAS Forecasting team, where he contributes to quarterly forecasts of international trade. He specializes in international trade, blue growth and gravity models. He graduated from University of Gdańsk (Ph.D. in economics and finance) and Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Advanced Studies Programe). Jakub's work experience includes both corporate and academic background. Recently, he also works as a researcher at the Economic Faculty at University of Gdańsk. Jakub participated in several research projects founded by the Polish National Science Centre as well as consulting and advisory projects for various government agencies and local authorities. His works concerning international trade, technological progress and corporate finance were published in world leading journals, such as 'Marine Policy'.