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Jul 06, 2021 14:13 MINS

Episode 95: Realistic Disaster Scenario - What if Latin America sees a surge in violent unrest?

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Alexia Ash

Director, Risk Quantification, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Carlos Caicedo

Senior Principal Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence

In today’s episode, we are once again talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it’s called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but highly impactful events. Our risk experts, Carlos Caicedo and Alexia Ash share highlights from our Latin America SRCC (strikes, riots, and civil commotion) scenario. We consider three main issues in our worst-case scenario:

  • Prolonged economic recession
  • Additional waves of Covid-19
  • Coordinated insurrections

Listen to today’s episode to hear our thoughts on what this could mean for the region, which countries will fare best, and what indicators we are watching closely to assess the likelihood of the scenario unfolding.

Read more about our RDS


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  • Security Risk
  • Country risk
  • Economic Risk
  • Political Risk
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