Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Nigeria's security forces have followed President Olusegun Obasanjo's orders and started to disrupt the criminal networks responsible for the kidnapping chaos in the Niger Delta. |
Implications | This policy could be counter-productive if the security forces use excessive violence. The Federal Government needs the support of the Delta communities to combat the criminal gangs responsible for unsettling the oil-producing region. |
Outlook | The policy has been directed at the criminal gangs, but little has recently been heard of the militant organisation the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and it is likely that the next direction of the Delta crisis will be decided by this group |
Security Forces Cause Fear inPort Harcourt
President Obasanjo, who last week directed the armed forces and the police to join forces to combat the criminal gangs that are causing chaos in the Niger Delta by kidnapping expatriate workers, has seen his policy put into immediate effect (see Nigeria: 18 August 2006:President Orders Joint Operation Against Delta Criminal Gangs in Nigeria and Nigeria: 16 August 2006: President Promises Crackdown on Niger Delta Kidnappers) Over the weekend (19/20 August), the security forces arrested scores of Nigerians around Port Harcourt, the main city in the Niger Delta. While some media reports suggest as many as 2,000 people were arrested it seems a more likely figure is the 160 quoted by AP. Unsurprisingly, it seems that the security forces started shooting sporadically, making residents of the city and surrounding suburbs fear for their lives. A military spokesman said "[t]he operation has just begun. We have a mandate of the president to hunt them down and we are just doing that". The operation will extend from the suburbs to the creeks of the Delta "to flush out the criminals and terrorists whose stock in trade is to abduct oil workers in exchange for money”.
Despite the large number of arrests over the last few days, many people have been subsequently released and this latest security operation has been met with scepticism by Delta residents. President Obasanjo previously announced hostage-taking in the Niger Delta will no longer be accepted and last week saw two foreign oil companies withdraw from Nigeria because of safety concerns (see Nigeria: 14 August 2006: Tip of the Iceberg? Companies Start to Exit Nigeria Because of Delta Kidnapping Chaos).
Five Oil Workers Still Held Hostage
One of the Germans held captive in the Niger Delta has been released. The 62-year-old Guido Schiffarth, an employee of Bilfinger Berger, had been abducted on 3 August and was held for 15 days (see Nigeria: 4 August 2006: Four Go Missing in Nigeria; Contractor Kidnaps Continue in Delta). Upon regaining his freedom, Schiffarth said ”I was treated well and with respect. It is important for me to mention this, after I was looked after by them”.
The previously unknown Movement of the Niger Delta People (MONDP) claimed responsibility for kidnapping Sciffarth (see Nigeria: 8 August 2006: New Militant Group Emerges in Nigeria; Claims Responsibility for Holding Oil Worker), but Alhaji Mujahid Dokubo Asari the leader of the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) requested the safe release of the German. Asari remains in jail on federal treason charges.
Five expatriates working for firms operating in the Niger Delta are still being held hostage. Construction firm Homan Engineering, who had a Lebanese employee kidnapped, have vowed not to pay a ransom for his release. In a statement the company said "[a]s a responsible company doing legitimate business, we will seek a peaceful means to secure the release of our worker, but we will not bow to blackmail to pay a ransom". Agence France-Presse reports that last week an unidentified caller had demanded a 50 million naira (US$390,000) ransom for the release of the Lebanese worker (see Nigeria: 17 August 2006: Suspects Charged in Nigeria over Delta Hostage-Taking; One More Kidnapped and Nigeria: 15 August 2006: Five More Kidnapped as Five Are Released in Nigeria Hostage Drama).
Outlook and Implications
The crackdown ordered by President Obasanjo could prove to be counter-productive and unsettle the volatile Delta region even further. While it is critical to combat hostage-taking, if unnecessary levels of violence are used against the Delta indigenes the federal government will lose even more support from these communities and the oil sector could be subject to possible reprisal attacks.
According to leading local newspaper ThisDay a top official from an oil company said the force-for-force order given by President Obasanjo last week may result in more violence against workers in the oil and gas industry, which government forces may not be able to curtail. Speaking anonymously, the official said "[i]f the federal government armed forces go all out against the militants in the already charged Niger Delta region, an all out bout of violence and bloodshed may result and the oil companies and their staff will be directly on the receiving end”.
The residents of the Niger Delta have suffered repeatedly because of the force metered out by Nigeria's army and police. If the levels of violence used in order to disrupt the criminal networks are considered excessive then the militants are likely to react with even greater violence, which would be likely to be directed at the oil companies operating in the Niger Delta and the expatriates employees.
While the Nigerian government has been focusing its attention on criminal gangs, the known militant organisations have been particularly quiet during this time. The most notorious of these groups is MEND, which seems content currently to sit back and observe the debacle from the background, but the future direction of the Delta crisis could be decided by its actions. MEND's next move could be crucial: the group has moved away from kidnapping foreign oil workers (regarded as a cumbersome activity) and it is possible that the militants could sabotage the facilities and pipelines of the oil companies leading to further production being shut-in. MEND is politically motivated and as the election for Nigeria's next president draws nearer MEND will expect to have its voice heard.