Election 2014: South Korean local polls likely to strengthen opposition at national level

In the run-up to the election, the defining issue has been the 16 April MV Sewol ferry disaster. Park Geun-hye's government has been widely criticised over its handling of the incident (see South Korea: 6 May 2014: Ferry and underground accidents highlight safety issues in South Korea, threaten hampering new legislation and ruling party's local-election campaign). With 16 people still missing, and 288 confirmed dead, the accident has provoked nationwide anger in South Korea. Investigators have blamed the sinking of the ferry on non-compliance with safety regulations. This reflects particularly poorly on Park's conservative Saenuri (New Frontier) party administration. As a conservative and the daughter of former president Park Chung-hee, she embodies the nexus between South Korea's chaebol (family-run corporations) and successive governments. Many South Koreans view these ties as responsible for lax implementation of regulations and the crowding out of small- and medium-sized enterprises. Conscious of this, Park's 2012 election campaign had focused on tackling the undue influence of the chaebol and reducing moral hazard in the economy. However, visible progress on these issues has been limited.

Reflecting the public anger, Park's approval rating fell from 59% to 49% between 23 and 30 April, the first time it had dipped below 50% since she came to power in February 2013. A public apology by Park on 19 May does not appear to have resolved the issue. Her administration has faced further challenges since then, including the withdrawal of her proposed replacement for former prime minister Chung Hong-won, who resigned following the sinking. Former Supreme Court judge Ahn Dae-hee, who Park had proposed as the new prime minister, withdrew his candidacy on 29 May following the emergence of allegations related to his earnings since leaving the court. For Park, this chain of events may have exacerbated the damaging perception of a cosy relationship between government, regulators, and business in South Korea.

Close election

Despite the ferry disaster, opinion polls conducted in the run-up to the elections suggest a relatively close race across most of the country. In part this reflects the extent to which the election is determined by local issues and personalities rather than on broader national issues. The exception to this trend for close races is in Seoul, where incumbent mayor Park Won-soon enjoyed a comfortable lead over his opponent Chung Mong-joon in opinion polls held before the 29 May cut-off point. A 20 May poll by the Korean Broadcasting Service put Park's support at 51%, compared to 35% for Chung. A Research&Research poll conducted on 26-27 May put the figures at 50.5% and 39.6% in Park's favour, well outside the margin of error of 3.1%.

Early voting began on 30 May. The National election Commission has reported higher-than-expected turnout, with 11.49% of the voting public having voted by the close of the polls on 31 May. By comparison, the turnout was 4.7% in early voting ahead of an April 2013 by-election. In the absence of up-to-date opinion polling or exit polls, it is impossible to be certain what the impact of this turnout will be. However, with the ferry disaster continuing to overshadow the public discourse, it is likely that the high turnout reflects voters seeking to express their anger at the government.

Further challenges for Park

Since coming to power, Park has faced repeated legislative delays in the National Assembly, despite her Saenuri holding a majority 156 out of 300 seats. The opposition – first as the Democratic Party (DP) and since March 2014 as the newly created NPAD – has managed to engineer repeated periods of deadlock in the National Assembly. A change in the procedures governing the chamber in early 2012 has allowed the opposition parties to hold up her agenda. Under the new procedures it is harder to break a filibuster and to bring bills defined as 'contentious' out of the committee stage. This largely stalled Park's domestic policy programme in 2013, with the administration falling back on increased implementation of existing regulations and tougher corruption investigations to meet Park's election pledge to tackle the undue influence of the chaebol.

In an attempt to regain the initiative earlier this year, she announced a three-year plan to encourage economic innovation in South Korea, including proposals to cut down on regulation. In the wake of the Sewol ferry sinking, Park is likely to have to defend this de-regulation programme from the charge that it could contribute to a repeat of that disaster. Park is going to face significant opposition in the National Assembly to proposals aimed at reducing debt in state-owned enterprises. She is likely to come under greater pressure to avoid further reductions in planned social welfare spending increases she campaigned on in 2012. Given her commitment to maintaining government debt levels at their current level, greater social welfare spending is likely to increase the pressure on Park's administration to raise personal income and corporate tax rates – something her administration has resisted thus far.

Outlook and implications

On one level this election will not affect Park's political situation. It will not lead to a shift in the balance of power in the National Assembly and it will not render her a 'lame duck' in the eyes of the voting public; with two and a half years remaining in her term she will still be able to move forward on her domestic agenda and negotiate effectively with the opposition. Nevertheless, an election defeat at the local level would embolden the NPAD in the National Assembly and make it harder for Park's administration to argue that it has a mandate. This would increase the likelihood of legislative delays in the National Assembly. There would also be an increased likelihood of delays in confirming appointments to the administration, including Park's next nominee for prime minister.

If Seoul mayor Park Won-soon secures re-election on 4 June, as seems likely, it will put him in a strong position to make a presidential run in 2017. In South Korea's tumultuous domestic politics, it is far from certain that this would translate into an actual candidacy, but the renewed attention would detract from President Park's domestic momentum. Despite this, and the increased risk of delays for Park's legislative programme in the National Assembly, the elections are unlikely to produce government instability or mark the end of the administration's ability to pass legislation through the National Assembly.