Nissan aims to commercialise self-driving cars by 2020 – report

Nissan announced yesterday (27 August) that it aims to offer multiple commercially viable self-driving vehicles by 2020. "Nissan Motor Co. pledges that we will be ready to bring multiple affordable, energy efficient, fully autonomous-driving vehicles to the market by 2020," said executive vice-president Andy Palmer during an event – "Nissan 360" – in southern California (United States). The Japanese automaker demonstrated for the first time its full technological prowess with respect to its autonomous driving technology at the show, a huge test-drive and stakeholder interaction event. Nissan demonstrated how a prototype self-driving Leaf electric car could use a combination of laser guidance systems, radar sensors, and cameras to navigate around a track with various obstacles. The car could detect a red light and slow to a stop. When a dummy pedestrian jumped in front of the car, it automatically swerved to avoid a collision. When a test driver engaged the turn signal, the car turned right to simulate exiting a freeway. The car, equipped with a global positioning system, will be tested at the automaker's mainstay Oppama plant in Yokosuka, southwest of Tokyo (Japan).

Palmer said that the company's engineers have been carrying out intensive research on the technology for years, in close collaboration with teams from the world's top universities, including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Stanford, Oxford, Carnegie Mellon, and the University of Tokyo. Palmer added that Nissan aims to offer multiple autonomous vehicles across its model range within two vehicle generations, or roughly between 8 and 10 years after 2020, at realistic prices. He said that work is already under way in Japan to build a dedicated autonomous driving proving ground, which the company hopes to complete by the end of fiscal year 2014/15. The test track, which features real townscapes and not mock-ups, will be used to push vehicle testing beyond the limits possible on public roads to ensure that the technology is safe. Palmer clarified that Nissan is not currently collaborating with Google, which has received worldwide attention for its work on autonomous vehicles, including the so-called "Google Car."

Although Nissan president Carlos Ghosn did not appear at the event, he did issue a statement on the company's autonomous vehicle programme: "In 2007 I pledged that – by 2010 – Nissan would mass market a zero-emission vehicle. Today, the Nissan LEAF is the best-selling electric vehicle in history. Now I am committing to be ready to introduce a new ground-breaking technology, Autonomous Drive, by 2020, and we are on track to realize it."

Outlook and implications

The push to perfect cars that can drive themselves is largely in response to a worldwide need to reduce the number of accidents caused by driver errors, resulting in huge loss of life and property. In the United States, for instance, 6 million car crashes per year cost as much as USD160 billion and rank as the top reason for deaths among 4–34-year-olds. As much as 93% of these accidents is due to human error, typically inattention. In the United States, Nevada, California, and Florida have all passed laws allowing automakers such as Toyota and Audi to test self-driving cars on public roads, while several other states are considering following suit, prompting the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to lay the groundwork for nationwide regulations (see United States: 24 October 2012: NHTSA preparing regulations for self-driving cars). The NHTSA's stance suggests that self-driving cars will not be available for public use at least within the next few years, even though some developers – such as Google – have suggested that fully self-driving cars may be as little as five years away from the market. Major auto systems developer Continental does not expect autonomous cars to become prevalent before 2025, although semi-autonomous technologies are likely to see mass-market deployment more quickly.

Nissan's autonomous driving technology is an extension of its Safety Shield initiative, which monitors a 360-degree view around a vehicle for risks, warns the driver, and takes action if necessary. Nissan is not the only automaker racing to build and sell self-driven cars. Rivals Ford, General Motors, and Toyota are also developing technology that would allow cars to steer, brake, and accelerate with little or no interaction with the driver. Still, few expect self-driven cars to be produced in large numbers in the near future. An increasing number of vehicles now offer technology that automates certain driving functions. For instance, advanced cruise-control systems can automatically slow and speed up to maintain a set distance behind cars ahead in a lane. Brake systems are also now available that automatically stop a car to avoid a collision, as are systems that can keep a car in a lane.

A revolutionary concept such as autonomous driving is expected to have implications throughout the design and construction of cars. For instance, perfecting collision-avoidance technology that can react more quickly and with more complex movements than a human driver would call for changes in the vehicle's chassis and traction control. Among the major technical challenges for automakers seeking to develop fully autonomous cars is developing low-cost, reliable sensors that will "see" around a car and guide it along its route. Nissan's projected timeframe for commercialising a self-driving car is perhaps consistent with forecasts from technology and other industries that the hardware and software for developing such technology could be available by 2020. Legal and regulatory barriers could be the most potent obstacles to the production of commercially viable self-driving cars since no-one – automakers, regulators, or insurers – would want to take the onus if such a car were to crash. At the same time, the technology could prove to be a major boon for those with disabilities.