End of an Era for the U.K. as Prime Minister Bows Out after 10 Years

Speculation Over

There was a neat symmetry in the way Tony Blair chose to bring his prime ministerial career to an end yesterday. He addressed his local constituency, Sedgefield in the north-east of England, which provided his political springboard back in the 1980s, and thanked all those party workers who have stood by him throughout. Blair is famed for his eloquent, sometimes theatrical, public speaking and he delivered another stirring performance. He highlighted what he felt were his achievements and asserted that, whether or not people disagreed with his decisions, they were always made in good faith. Switching to a humbler tone, he accepted that he had made missteps, but he pointedly denied that the decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was one of them. That decision threatens to overshadow much of his legacy, a topic this article will return to below. Blair wrapped up his speech in an emotional and patriotic tone, something he pulls off much better than any of his political peers: “This is the greatest nation on earth. It has been an honour to serve it. I give my thanks to you, the British people, for the times I have succeeded, and my apologies to you for the times I have fallen short.”

Blair named 27 June as the date of his departure, mid-way through his third consecutive term. Before the last election he said that he would serve out the full term, but the clamour for him to stand aside was steadily growing. The opposition, centre-right Conservatives had derided "the government of the living dead", seemingly in limbo waiting for Blair to go. The mid-term departure also gives Blair's successor some time to settle into the role before general elections in 2009/10. Labour's poll standing has deteriorated badly since David Cameron won the Conservative leadership—a Blair-like figure in terms of presentation and tactics—and reversing this will be a very stiff challenge.

So what will Blair do now? He still has some weeks left to manage the country and conduct an international farewell tour. He has European Union (EU) and international summits to attend, and it is reported that visits are scheduled to France (to meet president-elect Nicolas Sarkozy), to Africa, and to the United States. In the latter country, President George W. Bush is sure to pull out all the stops as he toasts his most trusty ally. Blair will want to leave office on a high note, his legacy burnished. It seems that he will not be short of job offers and lucrative speaking engagements afterwards, but he has not revealed his plans.

Selecting a Successor

The final weeks of Blair's premiership will also see the centre-left Labour Party choose its new leader, and Blair will inevitably have a major influence. The party will announce the timetable for the leadership election over the coming weekend, but it seems that there is only one realistic contender: Chancellor Gordon Brown. The latter has made no secret of his leadership ambitions and Blair has backed him vigorously in recent days. This has scotched speculation that Blair was going to line up a close ally to take on Brown—over recent weeks a series of would-be contenders have counted themselves out. Brown may still face some challengers from the party's left wing, but they will need to secure the signatures of at least 44 (12.5%) of Labour's 353 members of parliament (MPs) to run. The final ballot involves paid-up members of the Labour Party and members of its affiliated organisations, such as trade unions. Some of the latter are likely to favour a left-wing challenger, but it seems that victory for Brown is assured. His reputation is almost as formidable as Blair's after 10 years in the Treasury.

A Look Back at Blair's Record

Political

Blair's most obvious achievement has been three successive general-election victories. He led the transformation of the Labour Party in the mid-1990s that enabled it to escape an 18-year political wilderness. "New Labour" adopted a more centrist platform, distanced itself from the unions, and greatly improved its presentation and media handling. Blair went on to sustain unusually high approval ratings throughout most of his first term, and the second successive victory was achieved easily. The second term was not as easy—the occasional scandals and cabinet resignations seen during the first term multiplied, and voters tired of the "spin". The Iraq war caused huge ructions, but in this context it was remarkable how Blair kept the party together and still managed to deliver a third successive victory. The weakness of the Conservatives of course helped, but Blair was clever at beating them at their own game, adopting many of their policies and outdoing them in terms of presentation.

A different political achievement of high order has been the Northern Irish peace process. Devolution has only just been restored in the past week after years of limbo, but the politics of the province have been truly transformed during the past decade. Blair was a pivotal player in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, achieving what many thought was impossible. The Irish Republican Army (IRA) has abandoned its armed struggle, as have most of the Protestant paramilitary groups, and Northern Ireland has enjoyed a huge economic peace dividend. Although the current power-sharing government will be prone to instability, it seems that Northern Ireland is finally escaping from its old sectarian demons.

The Domestic Policy Agenda

Political success is one thing, but what Blair should be judged on more is the difference he made to the country. “New Labour” could not be accused of being unambitious in 1997—Blair set his government huge reform challenges. Many reforms were indeed achieved—there has been a huge shake-up of the health service and schools, a new minimum wage, and wide-ranging constitutional reform, to mention just a few areas. Spending on public services has meanwhile risen greatly, and Brown has targeted considerable funds at the poorest sections of society in successive budgets. The success of many of these reforms is, however, disputed—efforts to involve the private sector have been highly controversial, and the extra funds have not produced the improvements in delivery that were expected. The 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States threw another major domestic challenge into the spotlight: security. Great efforts have been made to bolster preparedness and to give the police the powers they need. This has had a considerable impact, although the attacks of 7 July 2005 showed that there were still intelligence weaknesses to be addressed, and also highlighted the radicalising impact of the Iraq war.

The Economy

Undoubtedly one of Blair’s, and indeed Brown's, proudest achievements has been the sustained strong economic performance over the past 10 years. The U.K. economy has seen relatively healthy, stable, and low-inflationary growth; GDP growth averaged 2.8% a year during 1997-2006, while consumer price inflation was limited to an average of 1.5%. Although Blair inherited a generally improving economy and also largely benefited from benign global economic conditions during his decade in charge, there is no denying that Labour's policies contributed significantly to the economy's generally favourable performance. The decision to give the Bank of England operational independence to set monetary policy subject to a government-determined inflation target right at the start of Labour's tenure was an undoubted masterstroke, notwithstanding some recent modestly increased criticism of the central bank's performance.

However, public finances are now in a weakened state, particularly given the overall strength of the economy throughout the past decade. This reflects the fact that, after following a "prudent", tight fiscal strategy during its first term, Labour then embarked on a spending spree aimed at improving public services, notably health and education. Given the resources that have been devoted to these services, the improvement appears to have been somewhat limited. The government has already indicated that public spending growth will be scaled back over the coming years to bring the public finances back onto a sustainable, sound footing, but there is a very real risk that further significant corrective action will be needed. This is despite the fact that the tax burden has risen fairly significantly in recent years. For example, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates that taxes on income now amount to 23.6% of wages and salaries, which is the highest ratio since records were started in 1987. In contrast, the lowest ratio occurred in 1997, the year Blair became prime minister.

International Affairs

When Blair came to power he had little experience of, or indeed interest in, foreign affairs. However, as the years wore on this came to be one of his biggest preoccupations, and he achieved great prominence on the global stage. The big turning point came with the Kosovo crisis, when Blair decided that intervention was imperative. The relative success of that operation fuelled his conviction that difficult decisions needed to be made "to do the right thing". He subsequently authorised military interventions in Sierra Leone (again a relative success), Afghanistan, and Iraq. “New Labour” famously promised an "ethical foreign policy", but Blair's enthusiasm for military muscle led many to dispute this tag. Blair's foreign policy was not just about intervention, of course—he is keen to be remembered for the lead he has taken on combating African poverty and climate change, for example. His efforts to build on the transatlantic relationship, with two successive U.S. presidents, also brought some rewards (even if he never shook off the "poodle" image). On the European stage Blair has sought to increase the United Kingdom's engagement and break up the old dominance of the core powers. This he achieved to a degree, particularly as the EU enlarged, but his failure to convince the British public to accept the constitution and the single currency has led to accusations that he squandered a golden opportunity to quash trenchant Euroscepticism.

Iraq was mentioned in passing above, but the 2003 invasion is of course no footnote in Blair's record. Since 2002 this has been the source of huge controversy and has left the prime minister badly wounded. There was huge controversy over how the war was justified, and the stubborn post-invasion chaos has taken Blair and Bush by surprise. Blair leaves office with the job in Iraq very much unfinished, and the situation could deteriorate further. Blair asserted yesterday that he still has a clear conscience about his original decision, and he angrily denies that he lied when justifying it. It remains to be seen how history will judge the Iraq war, and indeed how much it overshadows Blair's legacy, but it will always be closely associated with him.

Outlook and Implications

Whatever the verdict on Iraq, there are few who will not applaud Blair's achievements over the past decade. There were certainly missed opportunities and missteps, but this was an optimistic period for most Britons when the economy powered ahead and the country regained some of its prominence and pride on the international stage. The situation that Brown inherits is far from easy, however. He needs to reinvigorate Labour somehow and prevent the Conservatives from aping Labour's achievements in the mid-1990s. Brown may have an enviable reputation as chancellor, but the jury is out on whether he can make a great prime minister.