Assassination of Opposition Leader Bhutto Leaves Pakistan’s Transition to Democracy in Limbo

Benazir Bhutto, the head of the Pakistan People’s Party, was assassinated in a suicide attack yesterday at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi, Punjab province. Bhutto, 54, was killed along with at least 16 of her supporters. The attacker reportedly shot Bhutto in the neck before blowing himself up. Doctors declared her dead at 5:25 pm local time (1225 GMT). The assassination comes two weeks ahead of Pakistan’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for 8 January. Bhutto was buried in the south of her home province of Sindh today. The government has ordered the closure of all schools, businesses and banks as the nation begins three days of mourning.

Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf called the assassination a “big tragedy for the nation” and stated that "this brutality is the handiwork of those terrorists against whom we are fighting". The international community echoed these sentiments. U.S. president George W. Bush called on Pakistanis "to honour Benazir Bhutto's memory by continuing with the democratic process for which she so bravely gave her life". India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh noted that the attack highlighted the “common dangers” faced by India and Pakistan. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon stated that Bhutto's assassination "represents an assault on stability in Pakistan and its democratic processes". Bhutto’s assassination has seen oil prices rise past $97 per barrel and stock markets weaken, as concerns mount over a resurgence in international terrorism in the wake of destabilisation in Pakistan.

Possible Perpetrators

There is already significant speculation over the perpetrators of the assassination. CNN yesterday uncovered an email exchange between Bhutto and her friend and U.S. spokesman Mark Siegel after the first assassination attempt on her return to Pakistan in October (see: Pakistan: 19 October 2007: Carnage Marks Former PM's Return to Pakistan as Bombers Strike Rally). In it, Bhutto said that she “would hold Musharraf responsible” if attacked. She accused the president and former army chief of not providing her with adequate security and claimed that militant “sympathisers” in the government were behind the attack in October. The fact that her assassination occurred in Rawalpindi, which is the base of the Pakistani military and intelligence services, has also fuelled speculation over the government’s complicity in the assassination. The six-week state of emergency that was imposed by Musharraf resulted in curbs on press freedoms, which means that candidates for next month’s parliamentary elections have had to depend on public appearances rather than television broadcasts to campaign, which also put Bhutto at greater risk.

Pakistan’s interior ministry has noted that “extremist elements” were behind the attacks and also noted that Bhutto was on an al Qaida hit list. This follows a report by the Pakistan-based ARY TV network that al Qaida had claimed responsibility for the attack. In a video message this month al Qaida’s number two, Ayman al-Zawahri, called for attacks on all the candidates in next month’s parliamentary elections. More than 40 suicide attacks have occurred across Pakistan in 2007, claiming the lives of over 800 people. Musharraf has also survived a number of assassination attempts, two of which occurred in Rawalpindi in 2003—the same city where Bhutto was assassinated.

Bhutto had also been targeted by a number of other extremist groups. A tribal warlord from the Waziristan region, Baitullah Mehsud, was quoted in a Pakistani newspaper (although he later denied the comments) as saying that he would welcome Bhutto's return with suicide bombers. She was also labelled as an infidel by numerous Pakistani insurgent groups, including Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Hezb-ul Mujahedeen.

Security Situation Deteriorates

A security blanket has been thrown over the country, most notably in Bhutto’s home-province of Sindh, where a reported 16,000 soldiers have been deployed, with 10,000 in Karachi alone. Since the assassination 19 people have been killed in unrest in Karachi and other parts of southern Sindh Province, as well as in Lahore in Punjab province. Government buildings, vehicles and a branch of U.S. fast food chain KFC have been attacked, indicating a heightened risk for westerners and western affiliated businesses. Violence has also been reported in the cities of Peshawar in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), Multan in Punjab province and Jacobabad in Sindh, which is the hometown of interim prime minister Mohammedmian Soomro.

Fate of PPP and Pakistan’s Parliamentary Elections

The Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PP)) remains one of the country’s most popular parties and Bhutto’s assassination is likely to grant it further support through “sympathy votes” or a “martyr effect”. As such, it will most likely want the elections to continue as planned, assuming it finds a suitable replacement to lead the party. The feudal structure of politics within Pakistan has led to the dominance of the Bhutto family over the PPP. Benazir Bhutto’s children are too young to take up the mantle of leadership while her husband Asif Zardari is widely regarded as corrupt, being known as “Mr 10%” during Bhutto’s time in office. The most plausible successor is party vice-president Makhdoom Amin Fahim, who like Bhutto is from a powerful feudal family in Sindh province. Aitzaz Ahsan, a lawyer who gained fame fighting against military rule, is also a possibility, although he lacks a sufficiently strong patronage network.

The government has not yet decided whether to delay next month’s parliamentary elections. It has stated that it will announce its decision after consulting all of Pakistan’s political parties. Nawaz Sharif, head of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), who also returned from exile in November, has called for a boycott of next month’s parliamentary elections. He has stated that if the government goes ahead will polls they will “not be credible” and will “destroy the country”. He also noted that Bhutto’s assassination was proof that next month’s election would not be free and fair. This is an allegation he has continued to raise on the basis of the curbs on press freedom; the lack of a free judiciary, after the Supreme Court was purged following Musharraf’s declaration of emergency rule in November; the continued detention of former Supreme Court judges, including former chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry; and amendments to the constitution that bar the next parliament from questioning the legality of the emergency period. Sharif has also renewed calls for Musharraf to step down as president; he claims Musharraf's re-election in October was unconstitutional as he was voted for by an outgoing parliament while he held the dual role of president and army chief. A resignation is unlikely, however, given the further turbulence this could cause in the country. 

While the government has so far not given any hint on whether it will re-impose a state of emergency, it remains a distinct possibility. Musharraf justified imposing emergency rule on 3 November partially through the deteriorating security situation. If the current wave of protests and violence persists, he may re-impose emergency rule in the interests of state cohesion, although such an action is likely to incur further wrath from the population and the international community.

Outlook and Implications

Pakistan is likely to fall back into a period of turmoil over the coming months as an impasse grows. While the United States and the international community have continued to call for elections to be held to schedule, if the security situation continues to deteriorate this will become impossible. Furthermore, even if the elections are held it is no longer clear who could take Bhutto’s place, both within the PPP hierarchy and as one of Pakistan’s most secular, pro-Western civilian politicians. The planned boycott by Sharif further hobbles the credibility of any electoral process, while his call for nationwide strikes and his party's outright opposition to Musharraf's presidency will fuel civil unrest and tensions. The idea of a power-sharing agreement between prime minister and president, which could have underpinned stabilisation in the political environment if Bhutto had won the elections, has also been fundamentally undermined. On the other hand, any further delay to Pakistan’s reversion to democracy or in a worst case scenario, a re-imposition of the state of emergency, could fuel a further deterioration in the security environment throughout the country. Militants may escalate suicide bombings to capitalise on current destabilisation.  

Global Insight has decided to leave Pakistan’s political and security risk ratings unchanged for the time being in order to determine whether recent events are transitory or if they will leave a permanent scar on Pakistan’s institutional development, the move back to democracy and progress in clamping down on Islamic extremism. Global Insight downgraded Pakistan’s security risk rating to 4.5 following implementation of the state of emergency in November and held it at this level even after the emergency was withdrawn on 15 December. As such, we believe that the current rating captures the security situation within Pakistan. Nonetheless, we will further downgrade the rating if the current deterioration of the security environment following the assassination of Bhutto persists. Meanwhile, the political risk rating was upgraded in December to 4.0. This came after Musharraf declared an end to the six-week state of emergency; stepped down as chief of army staff before being sworn in for a second term as president; permitted the return of secular opposition leaders Bhutto and Sharif; and set the date for parliamentary elections on 8 January. We will downgrade the risk rating if next month’s parliamentary elections are delayed and, in the worst case, if the state of emergency is re-imposed and the reinstitution of democratic due process is subverted.

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