Election 2008: Republican McCain and Democrat Clinton Boosted by Latest U.S. Primaries

The Republicans—McCain Nudges Ahead

This year's primaries and caucuses are exceptionally close and have captured the public's imagination. Record turnout has been seen for both parties and there has been encouragingly strong participation among younger voters and independents. The high turnout is making predictions much harder than usual, however, and the candidates have been forced to tear up their prior strategies. On the Republican side, Arizona Senator John McCain is clearly benefiting from the higher participation by "non-core" Republicans in the primaries. His relatively liberal social views have upset the party's right wing in the past and, despite his support for the Iraq troop "surge", he represents a departure from the current administration. He stands a better chance of picking up floating voters in the November presidential election than his more conservative opponents, but there remain question marks over whether he can excite and rally the Republican core. For some, his advanced years also count against him (he would be 72 upon taking office).

McCain's victory in South Carolina, where he picked up over 33% of the vote, is particularly symbolic because it has a strong evangelical Christian base and was prioritised by his key opponents. It was in this state in 2000 that McCain's bid to secure the presidential nomination unravelled and George W. Bush triumphed. This time round, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee came in second with 30%, despite his great popularity among evangelical Christians. This is the first southern state to have voted, and the result suggests McCain can pull off similar results in others in this region. With New Hampshire also under his belt, McCain can now lay claim to frontrunner status. He pointed out that in every presidential race since 1980 the South Carolina winner has gone to become the Republican presidential nominee. Huckabee achieved a stunning win in the first state to vote, Iowa, but has now failed to repeat this in five subsequent states. The former Baptist preacher's hopes are not altogether dashed, but if he was going to do well anywhere it should have been South Carolina. Huckabee has a shoestring campaign and was always going to find it tough to sustain momentum throughout the year. His share in South Carolina was dented by former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson's showing (third on just under 16%). The latter has also campaigned hard on a social conservative ticket and badly needed to do well in South Carolina. He fared poorly by his standards, but well enough to split the evangelical Christian vote.

McCain's most potent competitor is not so much Huckabee, however, as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. The latter achieved an easy victory in the party's Nevada caucuses with 51% support, but this was little more than a consolation as the other frontrunners largely skipped that state. In South Carolina Romney made fourth with 15%, where he was not expected to do well thanks to the evangelical Christians' suspicion of his Mormon faith. The wealthy businessman has a formidable campaign organisation and has already won in Michigan and Wyoming. However, he has not fared as well as he hoped in the pivotal states despite the huge investment. He needs to make a strong comeback in upcoming votes. Meanwhile, it has been confirmed that California Representative Duncan Hunter is quitting the race after barely figuring in the contests to date.

The Democrats—Clinton Keeps Up Momentum

The Republican race is certainly intriguing, but it is the Democratic race that is stirring the greatest passions. There are two very strong contenders who would both make history, either as the first female president (New York Senator Hillary Clinton), or as the first black president (Illinois Senator Barack Obama). The two have strongly contrasting campaigns and selling points: former First Lady Clinton is a pillar of the Democratic establishment who claims she has the requisite experience and toughness, while Obama is youthful, charismatic and relatively untested. He has managed to mobilise young Democrats and independents very effectively with his talk of "change", but there are many in the party who are not sure he has what it takes to fight all the way to the White House.

The Nevada caucuses saw Clinton emerge the narrow victor with some 51% of the vote, to Obama's 45%. He may, however, pick up more of the state's delegates to the national convention (which ultimately picks the candidate) on account of the voting system. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards trailed in third on just 4%. This is potentially a mortal blow to his campaign as he hoped to perform strongly in the state where he was born. For Clinton and Obama Nevada was a particularly ill-tempered contest, each accusing the other of dubious tactics. Obama suggested Clinton broke caucus rules by pressing for early poll closures, while Clinton accused Obama supporters of applying undue pressure to voters. The two had earlier engaged in a race-related spat.

Outlook and Implications

For both parties the spotlight now moves onto the key delegate-rich state of Florida, which votes on 29 January, as well as "Super Tuesday" on 5 February when some 20 states go to the polls. The Democrats also hold their crucial primary in South Carolina on 26 January. The latter state is key for Obama to win and demonstrate his strength among the African-American population. Should Clinton triumph again, her frontrunner status will be much clearer. It seems John Edwards is now all but out of the frame. Turning to the Republicans, the momentum is on McCain's side, but he is nonetheless a rather unlikely Republican candidate given his "maverick" reputation. No one candidate has really shone for that party, and while Romney is still in the game he should have done better in key states given the huge amount of money and effort he expended. The two parties' races could be decided on "Super Tuesday", but close finishes could keep the excitement going throughout the year as every last national convention delegate spot is fought over.