Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Parliamentary election results released over the course of the morning have been split evenly between the MDC and the ruling party, despite the MDC's claims of an overwhelming victory for its candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai. That said, only 24 of the 210 House of Assembly seat results have been announced as yet. |
Implications | These elections are Zimbabwe's first harmonised polls and could herald the most comprehensive change in the country's leadership since the end of minority rule almost 30 years ago. The parliamentary election could leave current president Robert Mugabe severely weakened, possibly open to impeachment. |
Outlook | Declarations of an MDC victory are premature, as they are based on partial results. The possibility of a second-round run-off has not yet been ruled out altogether, though the party does appear to have performed well. |
Early Bird...
Voting in Zimbabwe's elections began at 7:00 and was scheduled to run for 12 hours. Although conclusive evidence regarding voter turnout is as yet unavailable, anecdotal evidence (i.e., Angolan sports minister and observer Jose Marcos Barrica's comments to Agence France Presse—AFP) suggests that it was high, with long queues outside polling stations reported. There are also reports of many prospective voters being turned away because their names were not on the voters roll. Rindai Chipfunde of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) told the BBC that this had more to do with a lack of voter education than systematic fraud. Southern African Development Community (SADC) observers have declared the polls credible, with the exception of two South African members. Results were expected to emerge yesterday afternoon, but the official tally only began trickling through this morning. Quoted by Panapress, ZEC director Utloile Silwangwana has attributed the delays to the additional pressures of running harmonised elections instead of the separate polls, which have occurred in the past: "The elections are in the [ballot] verification stage and it is taking long because there are four elections held at once instead of one as in the past." The results of 24 parliamentary constituency elections split equally between the MDC and the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) have now been announced by the ZEC. Predictably, the delay has stoked opposition fears that the ZEC is operating under the auspices of President Mugabe, and the hold-up is part of an attempt to manipulate the final tally. This is compounded by the fact that counting took place in the almost 9,000 polling stations immediately after voting closed, with results posted as early as Sunday morning in many cases. The head of the Pan-African Parliament observer team in Zimbabwe told the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) that the greater part—if not all—of the results were known by yesterday evening, and, moreover, that the delay risked upsetting what has been a very peaceful electoral process.
The opposition MDC was not prepared to wait for the ZEC to declare the results. In response to fears of a steal and similar tactical errors to those of the previous three elections (legislative in 2000 and 2005, presidential in 2002), MDC secretary Tendai Biti has claimed an overwhelming victory in both the presidential and the parliamentary elections. On the basis of results reported to MDC headquarters from polling agents from 12% of Zimbabwe's stations, the MDC claims to have won 67% of the presidential vote. Celebrations have begun in the capital, Harare, and the second city, Bulawayo. Independent candidate Simba Makoni’s spokesperson, Denford Magora, told the BBC that the MDC had "swept the board" and that "ministers are dropping like flies". The ZEC has described the MDC's position as "premature" and advised parties to refrain from pre-empting the results for fear of sparking violence in the aftermath.
Anatomy of Success
MDC activists were claiming last night that the MDC had launched a "political tsunami" across Zimbabwe. ZANU-PF strongholds in the rural areas were alleged to have fallen to the MDC. Makoni is also supposed to have performed well, especially in the Matabeleland region. Despite the lack of conclusive results, questions about how the opposition has mounted such a serious challenge to the powerful ZANU-PF are coming thick and fast. After all, the election timetable was unilaterally set by President Mugabe, apparently outmanoeuvring the MDC, and months of acrimonious efforts to unify the major MDC faction under Tsvangirai and its minor counterpart under Arthur Mutambara fell apart, with Mutambara faction supporting the Makoni presidential candidacy. The MDC was left with no time to verify the implementation of recent legislative changes aimed at improving the political environment, nor was there much time to challenge ZANU-PF's rural dominance. This is particularly striking given that state media coverage—which has been overwhelmingly dominant in rural areas—of the Zimbabwean parties has been weighted in the ruling party's favour. It may be that reforms have had an effect on the efficacy of MDC campaigning, especially when set against the current socioeconomic backdrop—an inflation rate of over 100,000% and eight years of economic contraction. In addition, organisation of the polls has been switched from the Registrar-General's Office to the ZEC, somewhat diluting the ZANU-PF's control. Campaigning has also been freer than in previous polls, allowing the MDC to campaign in previously "no-go" areas.
Outlook and Implications
The MDC does appear to have performed well outside of its traditional strongholds in the urban centres and Matabeleland. That said, victory celebrations are premature, as reports from polling station agents to party headquarters are far from official, nor are they comprehensive. Unconfirmed reports have detailed a government minister shooting someone after losing the parliamentary vote—not a happy omen as to how ZANU-PF or Zimbabwe's "ZANU-ised" national institutions would react to an opposition win. One of the factors militating against political violence in the aftermath of these elections akin to that in Kenya last year has been the low expectations of opposition activists and civil society groups; the entry of a third presidential candidate, Simba Makoni, and now the pre-empting of Saturday’s results by the MDC have changed this. Tensions have been strained by the delay. Even the consolation prize of control of the House of Assembly or the Senate may be cheapened by those new hopes. Still, according to police reports, the general calm present during voting on Saturday has been maintained. In the event of an MDC presidential victory, all eyes will turn to the security services to gauge the reaction to a change in government, as defence forces commander Constantine Chiwenga recently said that he would not salute anyone other than Robert Mugabe as president. The unknown variable of Makoni’s support among the security services could reduce the likelihood of violence if an opposition united front emerges (see Zimbabwe: 27 March 2008: Election 2008: Opposition Parties Consider Election Run-Off Alliance in Zimbabwe). Similarly, if an MDC victory does materialise, Mugabe's response will be dictated by the depth of support from him in the security services and among the ZANU-PF's top cadres, as well as the margin by which the MDC has won. It is fair to assume that Mugabe will be reluctant to accept losing the presidency. The MDC presidential candidate has made it clear that he intends to pursue those associated with past corruption or human rights abuses, and Mugabe would be sure to feel a threat should Tsvangirai win given that he would undoubtedly receive little protection. Despite horrific socioeconomic statistics that erode opportunities across all sections of society, the promise of prosecution may focus the upper echelons of Zimbabwe's ZANU-ised institutions against an MDC victory. Moreover, Mugabe still has the patronage card in his locker. It is still a possibility that the presidential polls will be pushed to a second-round run-off, in which case the same political calculations will be relevant.