Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | According to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, Robert Mugabe has won 85.5% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election. |
Implications | Mugabe can expect a chilly reception from some of his neighbours at the African Union Summit in Egypt, beginning today. There is a remote possibility that the pan-African organisation will refuse to recognise his presidency or else invite Morgan Tsvangirai of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change to participate in future meetings. |
Outlook | Mugabe has won, but has emerged weakened. Hopes for a Zimbabwean renaissance from the 2008 polls have been disappointed, but pressure is mounting. |
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) results, posted on Sunday (29 June), give Robert Mugabe 2,150,269 votes against 233,000 for Morgan Tsvangirai (see Zimbabwe: 27 June 2008: Election 2008: Zimbabwe's Presidential Run-Off Begins Despite Opposition Withdrawal). At 42.37%, voter turnout was marginally lower than during the first round. Mugabe’s victory may not come as a surprise, given the country’s hobbled political environment and the withdrawal of the opposition ahead of the polls, but it could still have serious implications for the national crisis. In recent weeks, Zimbabwe’s typically reticent neighbours have broken with standard practice by openly criticising Mugabe and even going so far as to suggest sanctions or military intervention in some instances. This extreme eventuality is still improbable, but the suggestion does mark the degree to which things have changed. African civil society, alongside many of the continent’s political leaders, is fatigued with the slow pace of progress borne of the South African-led Southern African Development Community (SADC) mediation process. Mugabe has promised to attend the African Union (AU) meeting in Sharm El Sheik (Egypt) today (30 June) and will no doubt have readied himself for a chilly reception from some of his peers. That said, it is not likely that there will be unanimous support for withdrawing recognition of Mugabe’s presidency or for military intervention. Powerful brokers, including South Africa, are in favour of a more measured approach, which can only mean continuation along the same troubled path, if not at an accelerated pace.
Resounding Victory?
To take from an already stark deficit in legitimacy, Robert Mugabe was claiming a high voter turnout and a sweeping victory in the 27 June polls before any public ZEC statement had been made. In addition, the vote count took less than 48 hours, compared to over five weeks for the 29 March polls. According to Reuters, the octogenarian leader invited Morgan Tsvangirai to attend the inauguration ceremony on Sunday (29 June) as a step towards reconciliation; in truth, even Mugabe will have recognised that his invitation would go unanswered. Tsvangirai withdrew from the polls, accusing uniformed security service officers and ZANU-PF militia of leading a violent crackdown on his supporters that apparently led to the deaths of at least 86 and displacing approximately 200,000. However, Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and the ZEC rejected the MDC pullout. According to their interpretation of Section 107 of the Electoral Act, the MDC would have to have informed the ZEC in writing 21 days before the 29 March first round in order for the withdrawal to be valid. Backed by the Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights non-governmental organization (NGO) and others, the MDC pointed out that the legislation does not refer to a run-off and therefore the MDC “is in compliance with the national laws and regional and international human rights standards applying to elections”.
International Sanctions
Citing politically motivated violence, intimidation and displacements, the SADC observer team concluded yesterday that Friday’s elections “did not represent the will of the people of Zimbabwe”. Head of the Pan-African Parliament observer team, Mark Khumalo, also stated that current situation “did not give rise to the conduct of free, fair and credible elections”. Evidently, in spite of ZANU-PF rhetoric, the MDC and its alleged Western backers are not alone in stating that the electoral process was fatally compromised. More importantly, there is now a strong case for more stringent measures to be taken against Zimbabwe from the region, such as refusing to recognise Mugabe’s presidency and economic sanctions or military intervention. However, in the absence of a further escalation in violence, such an extreme change in policy remains improbable. It is more likely that AU heads of state will seek to impose a reinvigorated negotiation schedule—perhaps as a sop to his disgruntled peers, Mugabe said he hoped consultation towards dialogue on unity and co-operation would begin sooner rather than later. Outside the region in the European Union (EU), Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, measures such as an arms embargo and refusal to recognise the 27 June results are more than likely. The German government has already requested that a German company cease minting Zimbabwean currency. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has stated that the deeply flawed elections have produced an illegitimate result and has urged both sides to negotiate a political solution.
The New Dispensation
Despite Friday’s “sweeping victory”, the President has emerged significantly weakened. ZANU-PF luminaries, such as Patrick Chinamasa, were rejected by the electorate at parliamentary level and cannot therefore remain in government. The Zimbabwean constitution stipulates that no person can remain a minister for longer than three months unless that person is a member of parliament. Putting to one side the prospect of more punishing sanctions from the international community and regional neighbours, the country is already beset by a catastrophic economic crisis, which shows no signs of abating. The economy will shrink in 2008 for the ninth consecutive year, this time by 7.5%. Unemployment is estimated at 80% at a time of circa 1,700,000% inflation. Over 3.3 million Zimbabweans will require food assistance this year, according to the World Food Programme, and life expectancy has been reduced to 35 years. By virtue of the 29 March polls, the President has been forced to weather the humiliation of losing the first round and control of parliament. Morgan Tsvangirai told the Mail on Sunday that the latter would form the basis of negotiations in Zimbabwe’s new dispensation: “We have the power to control parliament and that is recognised even by ZANU-PF... and we must force a set timeframe and work towards a new coalition for Zimbabwe.” In the Telegraph, Tsvangirai adds that, depending on the precise arrangement, he does not envisage Mugabe featuring in such a pact. Weaknesses notwithstanding, it will not be possible to cut Mugabe out of negotiations going forward. However, the SADC appointed mediator, South African President Thabo Mbeki, remains committed to quiet diplomacy and has been reluctant to declare Mugabe’s presidency as illegitimate. Moreover, ZANU-PF does not accept the MDC’s parliamentary majority—results in 105 constituencies (53 ZANU-PF, 52 MDC) are being challenged in the electoral courts.
Outlook and Implications
At home and abroad, Mugabe will be under renewed pressure to make real concessions to the opposition in negotiations. Key topics will include constitutional reform, an abbreviated election timetable, amendments to the electoral act, security and justice sector reform, and perhaps a truth and reconciliation commission. Mugabe’s backers in the security services and ZANU-PF upper echelons will now busy themselves with organising a political transition, which does not threaten them with investigation of past human rights abuses or corruption allegations. There could still be violence—previous elections, such as those in 1985 and 2000, were followed by violent retribution. However, the degree of international speculation and condemnation could militate against this. The MDC's bargaining position will also be bolstered by its parliamentary majority, if it is able to maintain its seats.