Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The selection of running-mate is one of the most critical decisions a candidate has to make; the former should be a political asset who can fill gaps of support, but he or she can equally turn into a political liability if insufficiently vetted. |
Implications | There had been much debate over whether Obama would opt for someone who also represented youthful "change", as with former president Bill Clinton's selection of Al Gore, or whether he would reassure voters who think he is too "green" by selecting a long-time political insider, as current president George W. Bush did. Although his politics are very different to Vice-President Dick Cheney's, Senator Joe Biden represents the latter option, and is particularly strong in the area of foreign policy. |
Outlook | Obama will hope to use the Biden announcement and this week's Democratic National Convention to breathe new life into a campaign that has been flagging over the past fortnight. |
Safe Bet?
Early on 23 August news was starting to seep out that Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware was Barack Obama's pick for running-mate, and the latter decided to confirm there and then. Normally the announcement would be made at a party event, but instead it was emailed and texted to supporters, a reflection of the way Obama has embraced new technologies. The choice of Biden comes as no great surprise, although Obama's team had managed to keep up an effective veil of secrecy until the last minute. A huge vetting operation had been carried out, led by Caroline Kennedy, daughter of former president John F. Kennedy. The biggest worry when picking a running-mate is whether there are skeletons in the cupboard liable to derail the whole campaign.
So what does Biden bring to the ticket?
- Foreign Policy Expertise: The most frequent criticism of Obama is that he lacks sufficient experience, particularly of foreign affairs. As president one is "commander-in-chief" of the armed forces and will be forced to take snap decisions during international crises. Do voters feel comfortable with his finger on the "nuclear button"? Biden can certainly fill the gap—he is chair of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has many decades of experience in the area. Although he initially voted to authorise the Iraq war, he became one of the loudest critics of the administration's policies there. Lately he has been in the news after rushing to Georgia in the midst of that country's brief conflict with Russia.
- "Washington Insider": Sixty-five-year-old Biden knows how the U.S. political system works, having spent nearly four decades in the Senate, and this could prove invaluable should he become vice-president. He would be good at striking deals and twisting the right arms to get legislation passed, and would make a reassuring stand-in president should anything befall Obama. Not only has Biden chaired the Senate's foreign affairs committee, he also headed up the Judiciary Committee during two highly contentious Supreme Court nomination battles. The affable Biden is well known to the public at large, thanks in large part to his regular appearances on television talk shows. He competed for the presidential nomination twice, in 1988 and 2008, although he dropped out early in both instances.
- Religion: Biden is a Roman Catholic and can hope to attract strong support from this group. Nonetheless, his support for abortion rights will alienate more traditional members of the church. Biden is also popular among Jewish voters on account of his staunch support for Israel over the years.
- Swing State: The fact that Biden was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, to a working-class family could prove a big help in this swing state. Clinton fared much better than Obama there, and it is one of his key targets. Biden might help to bolster Obama's appeal among white, working-class voters more widely.
Biden does, however, pose some risks to Obama's campaign too. He is known for being outspoken and past comments could land him in hot water. In 2007, while competing for the presidential nomination, he declared that Obama was "not yet ready" for the presidency. The Republicans have already leapt on those comments. There will be numerous other comments that his opponents will presumably drag up. In 1988 he withdrew from the presidential race after plagiarism revelations. The fact that he did so poorly in previous presidential campaigns also raises questions about his level of national appeal. Lately, in light of the credit crunch, he has come in for stick about his close relations with the financial services giant MBNA. There will also be some health concerns after two cranial aneurysms in 1988 that almost killed him, but health is also an issue for Republican candidate John McCain. Biden's "Washington insider" status may help plug perceived gaps in Obama's résumé, but then this might also undermine his promise to bring change to the political system.
Almost as interesting as who was picked, is who was not. The other favourites in the closing stages were Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana and Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia. Both represented younger alternatives to Biden who might reinforce Obama's novelty rather than contrast with it. Hillary Clinton had long been in the frame too, but given her huge profile and the bitter campaign the two endured, she would not have been an easy running-mate to cope with. One candidate who dropped abruptly from consideration was former North Carolina senator John Edwards. He was one of the early favourites after two strong primary campaigns, but revelations of marital infidelity have cast him into the political wilderness.
Outlook and Implications
The Biden announcement came as Obama geared up for the four-day party convention that opens today in Denver. This will witness his official coronation as presidential candidate and is designed to kick-start the final phase of the campaign. One of Obama's big challenges there is to secure unequivocal support from backers of his closest primaries rival, Hillary Clinton. She has publicly endorsed Obama, but there is still bad blood among the rival camps after the long and bitter primary campaign. Clinton will actually appear on the list of candidates for delegates to vote on, something that was designed to underscore Obama's respect for his opponent, but that could turn out to be a liability if she attracts a good number of votes.
It is ironic that the choice of Biden echoes that of Dick Cheney by President Bush, but in both cases the presidential candidate has felt he needs to bring more foreign policy experience to his ticket. Obama has lost a little of his self-confidence lately as McCain's attack strategy makes in-roads, and this seems to be reflected in his "safe" choice. Picking an older running-mate also dispels the tensions that might arise from the latter's presidential ambitions—a vice-president angling for the top job can prove a damaging distraction. Quite how safe Biden is remains to be seen, however—during his long history in Washington he has made a lot of ill-guarded comments that could come back to haunt him. One must hope that those involved in the Democratic vetting process have done their homework well enough.