Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The bomb attacks in New Delhi follow a string of bomb blasts in major Indian cities over the last few months, aimed at fuelling religious tensions, undermining business confidence and inflicting casualties, while demonstrating the rise of indigenous Islamic extremism in India. |
Implications | The attacks will draw attention to India’s lax security environment, notably the terrorists’ ability to access unsecured wireless networks, which may fuel an electoral backlash against the ruling Congress Party in a national-level parliamentary election by May 2009. |
Outlook | While foreign links have yet to be established, these attacks are likely to further fuel tensions between India and Pakistan, with their relations already under strain from an increase in terrorist infiltration across the Line of Control into Indian-administrated Kashmir. |
Five coordinated bomb explosions within a span of 45 minutes killed 22 people and injured almost 100 in the Indian capital, New Delhi on 13 September. The bomb attacks occurred in middle-class areas of south and central Delhi, which were packed with shoppers. Two of the bombs struck Connaught Place, Delhi’s financial and commercial centre, while another hit the city’s upmarket shopping district of Great Kailash and a fifth explosion occurred in an electronics and automobile components market. Another three bombs were defused, including one at India Gate, a major monument and tourist attraction. Some 10 people have reportedly been detained by police while security has been tightened at railway stations, airports and city centres in the capital, as well as other major cities. The capital’s subway system has been suspended. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pledged that "the challenge posed by terrorism and communalism would be fought tooth and nail," while President Pratibha Patil denounced the "mindless act of violence". The federal government held a top-level security meeting yesterday, while police are due to release pictures of the suspects today.
A group calling itself the “Indian Mujahideen” claimed responsibility for the attacks in an email that it sent to media outlets minutes before the first bomb explosion. The email, which taunts the authorities to “catch us if you can”, was traced to a IP (internet portal) address at an electronics firm in the eastern suburb of Mumbai, India’s financial capital, where the wireless connection was hacked by militants. The group has also claimed responsibility for multiple bomb attacks in the cities of Ahmadabad and Bangalore in July, Jaipur in May, and on courthouses in the cities of Varanasi, Faizabad and Lucknow in November 2007 (see India: 28 July 2008: Two Indian Cities Hit By String of Bomb Attacks; 16 May 2008: Terrorist Attacks in India Come Ahead of Resumption of Peace Process with Pakistan and 23 November 2007: Simultaneous Blasts Occur Outside Courts in Three Cities in Northern India). A similar email through a hacked internet connection was sent in the previous terrorist attacks.
Outlook and Implications
Indigenous Terrorism
Little is known about the Indian Mujahideen, which also calls itself "the militia of Islam". The group has called for an “open war” against India for its support of the United States and attacks on Muslims, as well as threatening media companies to cease their so-called “propaganda war” against Muslims. They have also threatened Mukesh Ambani, one of India’s richest people and chairman of Reliance Industries for his construction of a building on land previously occupied by a Muslim orphanage. Some speculate that the group may be a re-emergence of the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), which was established 30 years ago and proscribed in 2001. SIMI became radicalised over the years with alleged support from Pakistan-based militant groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Bangladesh-based outfits such as Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami.
The rise of groups such as the Indian Mujahideen and SIMI illustrate the growth of home-grown Islamic extremism and terrorism in Hindu-majority India, where Muslims comprise 13% of the population. India has traditionally accused foreign militant groups of carrying out terrorist attacks on its soil while priding itself with maintaining a moderate Muslim population that has escaped the wave of Islamic fundamentalism that has plagued neighbouring countries. The rise of Hindu nationalism under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which led the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government from 1998-2004, has served to fuel sectarian tensions in India. Notably, the issue of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, which was allegedly built over by the Babri mosque, leading to the mosque’s destruction in 1992, coupled with communal violence in Mumbai in 1992-3 and Gujarat in 2002, has served to radicalise elements of the Muslim population.
Security Infrastructure Weak
Despite suffering from a growing number of high-profile terrorist attacks on soft and symbolic targets in the Indian heartland, the latest attacks also demonstrate that India continues to suffer from lax security measures fuelled by the absence of a coherent national counter-terrorism policy and inadequate resources for police and intelligence services (see India: 1 May 2008: India Identified Among Most Vulnerable to Terrorism in U.S. Report). Notably, the use of unsecured wireless networks demonstrates the need to upgrade cyber-security in the country. Legislation against Internet Service Providers (ISPs) may be tightened following these attacks. Tensions have been further compounded by a disagreement between the two national parties, the ruling Indian National Congress (INC) and opposition BJP, over counter-terrorism legislation, with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) repealing the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) in 2004, which was introduced by the previous BJP-led NDA government. While the Congress Party alleges that this legislation led to a misuse of power, the BJP claims that the Congress has gone soft on terrorism and security issues. The country’s precarious security environment, coupled with the rising price of basic commodities and the government’s anti-poverty measures, are likely to be prominent issues in a string of state elections ahead of national-level parliamentary elections by May 2009.
Foreign Links
Finally, while there is not yet any established link between the perpetrators of these latest attacks and any foreign terrorist group, the Delhi bomb attacks are likely to further strain the India-Pakistan relationship, which is already under pressure following a surge in militant infiltration across the Line of Control (LOC), dividing Indian and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Notably, four Indian security force personnel were killed in a gun battle with militants in the Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir yesterday. Tensions in Kashmir have been further fuelled by an ongoing controversy over the transfer of land in the Muslim-majority state to a Hindu trust for an annual Hindu pilgrimage, which has sparked protests leaving 41 Muslims and 3 Hindus dead (see India: 1 September 2008: Government Approves Controversial Land Transfer in Indian-Administered Kashmir). In the latest violence, 2 people were killed and 80 injured during clashes between protestors and police in the town of Shopian, which is south of Srinagar, the state’s summer capital on 12 September. The latest unrest is the greatest since the two-decade insurgency erupted in the state in 1989, which has left 43,000 people dead, although human rights organisations allege that as many as 60,000 people have been killed while another 10,000 are missing.
Previous terrorist attacks on the Indian capital have been attributed to Pakistan-based terrorist groups. Notably, an attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001 brought both countries to the brink of a fourth war while multiple bomb attacks on the capital in October 2005 were also attributed to Pakistan-based militant groups. Coupled with the suicide attack on the Indian embassy in the Afghan capital Kabul in July, these attacks are likely to put further pressure on Pakistan’s democratically-elected civilian government led by President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani to adopt a more hard-handed approach towards growing Islamic extremism in the country (see Afghanistan: 7 July 2008: India's Afghan Embassy Targeted by Suicide Attack).
Pakistan is already under pressure on its western borders amid a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, which has been attributed to militant sanctuaries in Pakistan’s northwest tribal region, leading to an increase in U.S. military operations inside Pakistan (see Pakistan: 11 September 2008: Tensions Grow between Pakistan and U.S. over Cross-Border Military Incursions). Tensions between India and Pakistan have been contained by the Composite Dialogue peace process that began between both states in 2004, which has made limited progress on the eight core issues plaguing their relationship. Given the volatile security situation on its western front, Pakistan can ill afford a deterioration in its security environment on its eastern border with India, which would lead to a diversion of its military resources.