IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | After violent protests left two people dead and 123 injured, the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts abandoned their three-week rally in Bangkok. |
Implications | The police have announced that the Red Shirts' leaders will be prosecuted for their role in defying the state of emergency order imposed in Bangkok on Sunday (12 April), which banned the gathering of more than five people at a time. Although this is a legal move, it exposes government hypocrisy after coming into power on the back of a similar protest movement, whose leaders remain unpunished. |
Outlook | Abhisit's position is currently strengthened, but far from secure. He has to take credible steps towards national reconciliation, but has already ruled out talks with Thaksin—his best hope of achieving any kind of consensus. Otherwise the Red Shirts have vowed to return, and after the weekend's events, their threats should be taken seriously. |
Faced with a violent military crackdown, Thai anti-government protesters have abandoned their three-week rally in Bangkok. This represents the most-recent twist in the three-year saga that has characterised Thai politics. The latest protest—staged by the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts—left at least two people dead and 123 injured, and threatened to push Thailand to the brink of civil war. The decision by the Red Shirts' leaders to withdraw most likely prevented further bloodshed as the military moved in to disperse thousands of protesters from their encampments around Bangkok, notably at the Prime Minister's office.
The withdrawal is a major victory for Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, whose days in office looked numbered when his government failed to successfully stage a scheduled Asian summit when Red Shirts broke through security cordons in the resort hotel in Pattaya. The Red Shirts' leaders addressed their supporters earlier today, saying "all of my brothers and sisters, please give up and board these buses provided by police. Police will take good care of you." The demoralised protesters, many discarding their trademark red shirts, are now making their way back to their rural homes in the northern part of the country. However, many remained defiant, saying that their campaign to oust the government of Abhisit was far from over.
Military Steps In After Earlier Ambivalence
Ultimately it was the threat of military action that convinced the leaders of the Red Shirts to abandon their protest. One of the leaders acknowledged that many supporters were willing to die for their cause, but that they deemed it wiser to ensure their safety. The military yesterday veered between exercising restraint and at times resorting to violence, in some cases reportedly firing live rounds into crowds of protesters. This marked a turnaround from their earlier ambivalence. On Saturday, the Red Shirts managed to push through security cordons at a hotel in the resort town in Pattaya—the staging ground for the Asian regional summit designed to address the worsening economic situation in the region. The cancellation of the summit forced several Asian leaders, including dignitaries from China, Japan and South Korea, to be airlifted from the summit venue. Others, including Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, had their flights turned back mid-air.
Abhisit pledged to stage the summit successfully when he took power in December last year, after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and regional Asian summits were postponed due to the turmoil affecting the country at that time. In so doing, he made the weekend's summit an obvious target for the Red Shirts. Despite the presence of around 8,000 security personnel, a few hundred Red Shirts managed to derail the entire summit.
It is widely known that the police ranks are filled with Red Shirts' sympathisers, officers who hail from poorer rural backgrounds that make up the bedrock of the movement's support. However, the military's relaxed attitude in Pattaya surprised observers, who had put the military firmly in the Democrat Party's camp. There are several explanations for this. Firstly, the military remains tarnished by the memories of the 1992 crackdown on pro-democracy protests, which left dozens of people dead as a result of heavy-handed tactics by the military. Moreover, the military is probably finding it as difficult as other observers to pinpoint a winner and a loser in the battle between the Red Shirts and the urban elites represented by the DP and backed by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the Red Shirts' yellow-clad rivals. The military probably assumes that it has more prestige to lose than to gain by intervening too soon and potentially backing the wrong horse. In addition, there is speculation that as in the police, there is some private sympathy for the Red Shirts among the officers. Nonetheless, as it became apparent that the country was sliding into a civil war, the military stepped in to crack down on protesters.
Protests Expose Government Hypocrisy
The police have now announced that the Red Shirts' leaders will be prosecuted for their role in defying the state-of-emergency order imposed in Bangkok on Sunday, which banned the gathering of more than five people at a time. Several leaders have reportedly already handed themselves over to the authorities. National police chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan confirmed that all core protest leaders would be prosecuted and that arrest warrants were being prepared.
Clearly, the Red Shirts broke the law, causing mass chaos in Pattaya and Bangkok, and engaging in clashes with police and local residents. However, the crackdown on the Red Shirts exposes the government's complete hypocrisy, as it came to power on the back of a similar protest movement staged by the PAD. It not only failed to prosecute any of the PAD members for their illegal actions, including the enormously damaging airports seizures, but brought several key members into the government as advisors and as a foreign minister. In the longer term, this is likely to continue to provide fuel to the Red Shirts' movement, which may be down, but certainly not out.
Outlook and Implications
The Red Shirts appear to have given up, and it looks as though Abhisit is back in control. The military and police have stepped up controls to prevent a resumption of violence and have secured many of the key installations in Bangkok. In the immediate term, Abhisit does emerge victorious, but any sense of jubilation would be seriously misplaced. In the longer term, the outlook for Thailand remains dire.
The rural poor in Thailand, once excluded from politics in the country, have in recent years discovered that democracy can work for them. Thaksin was far from a model leader, but he was the first to promise and deliver on policies designed to ease their lot. There is no turning back from this realisation, despite what the urban elites in Bangkok want. As such, the country remains deeply divided between the rural supporters of the Red Shirts and the elites of the military, judiciary, monarchy and the Democrat Party. With neither side being able to tolerate the other being in power, Thailand remains vulnerable to mob rule. The military-drafted constitution of 2007 does not guarantee the powers of an elected government, and thus the revolving door politics of the last three years seem set to continue.
Abhisit's position is currently strengthened, but far from secure. He has to take credible steps towards national reconciliation, but has already ruled out talks with Thaksin—his best hope of achieving any kind of consensus. He also has to address the charges that his government is illegitimate—despite losing three democratic elections in a row, the Democrat Party now governs with the tacit support of the military and judiciary—and prove to the wider population that his government can serve all sections of Thai society. Otherwise the Red Shirts have vowed to return, and after the weekend's events, their threats should be taken seriously.