IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The Pyongyang regime has elevated Kim Jong-un to four-star general a day ahead of the start of the Korean Workers Party meeting. |
Implications | While the announcement is the clearest signal yet from North Korea that he has been appointed as successor to his father, it represents only an initial step in what is likely to be a prolonged process before Kim Jong-un can take up the highest leadership position. |
Outlook | Looking ahead, the complex military-political distribution of power in North Korea means that serious obstacles remain for the Kim dynasty to ensure support for the planned succession. |
Third Son Rises Up the Ranks
The official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) yesterday announced the appointment of Kim Jong-un as senior general in the military, providing the clearest indication yet that he is being groomed for the leadership position. The state-run news agency reported that Kim Jong-un has been promoted to four-star general just hours before the start of a key political meeting of the country's ruling Workers' Party, the first in 30 years (see North Korea: 21 September 2010: North Korea Sets Date for Party Congress). As expected, the leadership transition is becoming increasingly public. It is also notable that Kim was given a military, rather than a party position, suggesting that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il still regards the military as the primary source of power in the country.
KCNA also reported that Kim's sister, Kyong-hui, was promoted to four-star general. Kim is married to the vice-chairman of the National Defence Commission, Jang Song-thaek. Jang fell out of favour with the "Dear Leader" in 2004 and was stripped of his titles. However, he staged a swift comeback just two years later and is now widely viewed as among the most powerful men in the country. Jang was elevated to the vice-chairmanship of the National Defence Commission in June. The promotion of his wife suggests that Kim may want the couple to act as caretakers for his inexperienced son as he takes on increasing leadership responsibilities. Several other commanding officers were given the rank of general, including Choe Ryong-hae, plus three others. The son of North Korea's former vice-president, the late Choe Hyon, he is a childhood friend of the leader, and his elevation further indicates that the "Dear Leader" is attempting to put a group of allies in place who will facilitate the succession process for his son.
North Korean state television reported that Kim Jong-il was re-appointed as general-secretary of the Workers' Party at the beginning of the party meeting today. The broadcast added that his re-election took place "amid a storm of applause" and that it underscored the "absolute support and trust" that the public has in his leadership.
Kim Jong-un Profile
The son of Kim Jong-il and Ko Yong-hui—a former dancer and one of the leader's several wives—Kim Jong-un was born either in 1983 or 1984. The confusion over the dates demonstrates the lack of verifiable information on the man himself, with little known either about his popularity in North Korea or his reported education at a school in Liebefeld, Switzerland. Nevertheless, Kim's place as likely successor to North Korea's supreme leader has been debated for years. Kenji Fujimoto, Kim Jong-il's chef for 13 years until 2001, describes in his book "I Was Kim Jong-il's Cook", that among the North Korean leader's sons, Kim Jong-un resembles his father the most and has long been the ruler's favourite. At times, Kim's older half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, and brother, Kim Jong-chol, were considered potential heirs. However, Kim Jong-nam, the eldest, reportedly fell out of favour with his father after he tried to enter Japan on a forged passport in 2001. Kim Jong-il, meanwhile, has complained about Kim Jong-chol, the older of the two sons by Ko, because he is "like a girl", according to the Japanese chef.
Unverified stories of Kim Jong-un's rise were lent more credence after North Korea's official media published commentaries suggesting an heir apparent was in place. The use of the expression "the brilliant revolutionary leadership of the sun and stars", for example, indicated that the Pyongyang administration was hinting at a successor by mentioning "stars", in contrast to just the sun, a common metaphor for Kim Jong-il. There were other signs that a campaign was under way to prepare the public for Kim Jong-un. A propaganda song entitled "Footsteps" played repeatedly in Pyongyang in early 2009. While the song did not mention Kim Jong-un by name, North Koreans viewed it as dedicated to him.
Outlook and Implications
The Long and Winding Road
Kim Jong-il is believed to have suffered a stroke in the summer of 2008, prompting him to accelerate the political-transition process. However, the younger Kim's promotion represents only an initial step in what is likely to be a graduated process before he assumes the leadership post. Kim Jong-il took control of the country in 1994 following the death of his father, Kim Il-sung, who had already begun the transition process decades earlier, allocating his son to key positions starting in the late 1960s. Even then, Kim Jong-il did not become the general-secretary of the Korean Workers Party (KWP) until 1997, having been forced to wait for the revolutionary and military leaders of his father's generation to pass away. Following this, the "Dear Leader" may have left it too late for his successor to form the necessary alliances in the country to maintain the totalitarian system of government. Much will also depend on how long Kim Jong-il lives. The longer his life, the greater the chance that his son will succeed him.
Securing the Support of the Military
Kim Jong-un's chances of getting through the succession process intact will also depend on the new generation of senior party officials who are due to be announced this week. The conference has only just started and attention will now be focused on new appointments or signs of a change in policy direction, particularly on the economic front. The stability of the overall transition will also depend to a significant degree on how Kim Jong-un is perceived in the military. The power and profile of the Korean People's Army (KPA) have risen dramatically in the Kim Jong-il era, with North Korea officially having adopted a songun ("military first") policy since January 1995. Although the Korean Workers' Party remains important, there has been a renewed emphasis on state rather than party institutions since Kim Jong-il took power. This is evident in the fact that while North Korea has held three elections to its Supreme People's Assembly (SPA)—in 1998, 2003, and 2009—there has not been a KWP Congress since 1980. It remains unclear whether the military will back the planned transition, particularly given Kim's young age and inexperience.
Kim Jong-un's youth and lack of training mean that he is unlikely to enjoy the supreme power that his father and grandfather held. Instead, the country is more likely to be ruled by a collective leadership based around the National Defence Commission (NDC), including individuals such as Jang Song-thaek or one of the "second-generation" leaders that could be integral to any future succession plan following the demise of the "Dear Leader". A military coup remains unlikely since the army already wield so much influence. Indeed, it may suit the KPA to have Kim Jong-un succeed his father, so long as he remains a figurehead who does not undermine the military's influence.