IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | A year after Renault's historic announcement at the 2009 Frankfurt Motor Show on its EV-led future direction, Renault-Nissan Alliance chief Carlos Ghosn unveiled near-production-ready versions of its ZOE and Twizy EVs and outlined pricing and owner support packages for the Fluence EV at the Paris Motor Show. |
Implications | These details are important as they show how the Renault EV ownership model will work, with the Fluence EV being the first of Renault's three EV passenger cars to go on sale. Renault has announced battery leasing costs and warranty packages. |
Outlook | The finer details of warranties and battery leasing costs are vital for customers to make a real-world assessment of lifetime cost of running one of Renault's EVs and whether it makes economic and practical sense in the comparison to a conventional powertrain car. However, with the launch of first Renault EV coming in 2011, government subsidies and how long they are maintained will be the biggest factor in determining the short-term success of Renault's strategy. |
Renault has announced more details of its hugely ambitious and audacious programme to bring three new electric vehicle (EV) passenger cars to market by 2012. The Fluence EV will be the first of the new EV passenger cars to become commercially available when it officially goes on sale in 2011, when it will be launched in Israel and Denmark before being rolled out across Europe. Renault revealed the final production model at the Paris Motor Show yesterday, to be manufactured at the plant in Bursa, Turkey, from the beginning of 2011. Renault-Nissan Alliance chief executive officer Carlos Ghosn also gave the first official price details of the model which he said would cost 21,300 euro (US$29,017) for the entry-level model in France, the same price as the diesel Fluence there, after government subsidies for EVs are applied. It will cost between 21,300 euro and 26,000 euro in most European countries depending on local VAT rates and the extent of available discounts, subsidies and tax breaks for EVs, with orders being accepted from yesterday.
Customers will also subscribe to a monthly lease starting from 79 euro (including VAT) to cover battery costs. Customers will lease the batteries as this is seen as a simpler model than full ownership of the batteries in case they need replacing or fail to fulfil their expected life cycle or number of charge cycles. Presumably in this event Renault will replace the battery with no questions asked as long as the end-customer continues to pay the lease fee. During the presentation at Paris, Ghosn also confirmed that the electric motor of the Fluence would be covered by a five-year warranty, giving customer extra peace of mind over the durability and reliability of the company's EVs. Renault also announced that the price of the EV variant of the Kangoo light commercial vehicle LCV would be 15,000 euro in France after the EV subsidy, with a battery leasing cost of 72 euro a month.
Renault also showed a near-production version of its highly innovative Twizy, which is perhaps the boldest variant of Renault's EV strategy. In terms of its design and concept the model has a very small footprint (length: 2.32 metres, width: 1.19 metres, height: 1.46 metres). Renault is aiming to begin sales by the end of 2011 and one of the boldest elements of the package is its price, which aims to match the price of a three-wheeled scooter of between 3,500 and 5,000 euro. Renault is also looking to offer a version of the Twizy which does not require a driving licence. However, perhaps the model that has the most potential to accelerate Renault's EV strategy in terms of attaining a critical mass of sales volumes is the ZOE. Renault shows what Ghosn described as a near-production-ready model at Paris, "with 90% of the car pre-figuring the production model", which went under the ZOE Preview nametag. The B/C-segment model would go into production by the middle of 2012 and will be built at the Flins plant outside of Paris, together with a large component of EV battery production. Renault has ambitious targets for the Zoe ZE, with the company forecasting that the model will provide two-thirds of its overall EV sales by 2015.
The company also outlined three different models of recharging its electric models:
- Standard charge: This will be the most common method of charging, with the vehicle being charged at home or at a publicly accessible charging point. A full charge will take 3.5-8 hours, depending on model (Twizy, 3.5 hours and Kangoo Z.E., ZOE Preview and Fluence Z.E. between six and eight hours). For charging at home there are two methods: either connection via a Wall-Box (this protects the domestic circuit) or an EVSE (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment) offered as an option. The recommended option is the Wall-Box with the advantages of ergonomics, speed, load optimisation and protection of both the domestic circuit and the vehicle.
- Fast charge: In an emergency, when the customer needs to charge the battery quickly, they will be able to connect via a public fast charge point. This will give 37 miles range in less than 10 minutes or 80% battery capacity in 30 minutes. Quickcharge will be available on ZOE Preview and, at a later date, on Fluence Z.E. and Kangoo Express Z.E.
- Quickdrop battery exchange stations: In some countries, Quickdrop battery exchange stations will be available through the Better Place network. The customer will be able to exchange a depleted battery for a fully charged battery in just three minutes. This scheme will be initially rolled out in Israel and Denmark in 2011.
To supplement the detailed product announcements that Renault showcased at its home motor show, it has also signed an extended agreement with French utility company EDF to further accelerate the commercialisation of EVs. According to a company press release the enhanced agreement will cover the following elements:
- Co-operation on batteries: tests, management of the first and second lives of batteries
- Conducting pilot projects to test electric vehicles and innovative charging infrastructure
- Creation of mobility offers for electric vehicle customers.
The agreement will also see any Renault customer purchasing an EV being put in contact, via the vehicle dealership, with one of EDF's partner electricians present across the country and selected for the quality of their services. The service will include monitoring the customer's electric equipment and, where necessary, ensuring it complies with prevailing standards and fitting an electric socket adapted to the recommendations of Renault and Nissan.
Outlook and Implications
After the groundbreaking announcement that Renault made at last year's Frankfurt Motor Show (see Germany: 16 September 2009: Frankfurt Motor Show 2009: Renault Bets Future on Electric Dream with Four Separate Models Planned), outlining its future EV strategy, which incorporated a bold plan to become the first OEM to offer a full range of EV passenger cars, Renault is now moving on to the second phase of the programme by unveiling production-ready models and providing the finer details of the offering which will help consumers make an informed decision over whether a Renault EV represents a viable purchase for their needs. It was always Ghosn's and Renault's pledge that the EV version of the Fluence, the first passenger car EV model offering of the brand to go on sale, would not cost more than the equivalent conventional powertrain model and the company has managed to keep this pledge. But is should also be noted that Renault will only achieve this pricing target with the help of the French government's so-called super bonus—a 5,000-euro subsidy off the top-line cost of an EV, with the French government committing to this discount for two years. However, to really generate the critical mass of sales that Renault requires it would need all the governments of the major EU passenger car markets to come up with a long-term, uniform commitment on incentives and subsidies for EVs, something that looks extremely difficult to achieve. Indeed Ford yesterday voiced concerns over the lack of assurance over how sustained EV subsidies will be in Europe. Government policy is likely to be one of the biggest drivers of the success or otherwise over the commercialisation of EVs and Renault will be extremely nervous over the lack of assurances it has in this area. The audacity and innovation implicit in Renault's EV strategy should still be applauded but the company is soon to arrive at the critical juncture where its first passenger car EVs will go on sale. If the technology is not seen to be a commercial success in the short term it is likely to damage the medium and long-term prospects for Renault's audacious strategy. IHS Automotive at the moment so far sees a slower ramp-up in EV sales than the manufacturer would itself like, with Renault forecast to manufacture a combined total of 80,000 units by 2015. Significantly short of the company's own breakeven point of 100,000 units per annum.