IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The mid-term elections will decide the composition of the whole House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, not to mention numerous other elected posts and ballot initiatives around the country. |
Implications | The outcome will to a large extent determine the course of the remainder of President Barack Obama's first term as president. With many voters still reeling from the economic meltdown and seduced by the angry populism of the Tea Party, he must brace for a more hostile Congress. |
Outlook | Current polls suggest the House of Representatives will fall to the Republicans while the Democrats will cling to the Senate; this is ominous for legislative progress, but it may paradoxically pave the way for more effective bipartisanship. |
Final Stretch
After months of build-up and lavish campaign spending, the mid-term elections are now less than a week away. On 2 November, voters have an opportunity to overthrow the historic twin majorities the Democrats won in the House of Representatives and Senate in 2008. Democratic President Barack Obama is not up for re-election himself until 2012, but he could now be faced by a powerful Congress dominated by his opponents. The U.S. political system dictates that the whole of the House and one-third of the Senate is re-elected every two years. A majority (or indeed a "super-majority") is required in both chambers to pass legislation. With the Republicans resurgent only two years on from their humiliation in 2008, the outlook for Obama's ambitious legislative agenda is bumpy to say the least.
So what are the latest indications we are seeing from the polls? National surveys do not really help—it is the state of individual races that will be decisive. Weighing all of these up is difficult, with polls being conducted at different intervals and with different methodologies/political leanings. The New York Times conducted a careful review of the races on 23 October and concluded that the Republicans are on track to take the House, while the Democrats should hold onto a slim majority (not a 60-seat super-majority) in the Senate. Several polls and anecdotal evidence suggest that Democratic candidates have fought back more successfully in the closing days and that the Republican wave may have crested. This may improve the picture for them in the House somewhat, but few are daring to predict that they will hold onto a majority. The Times estimates that 28 House seats currently held by the Democrats are either already lost to the Republicans or leaning towards the latter, while another 40 remain in the balance. The Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to secure a majority. In the Senate, meanwhile, seven seats are classified as tossups, while Republicans are almost certain to win three other seats. They need to win in at least five of the seven tossups to get a simple majority. The Wall Street Journal meanwhile echoes the Times, its latest projections showing that Democrats will emerge with 51 seats to the Republicans' 49 in the Senate. In the House, it is predicted that the parties will stand at 205 to 230, respectively.
How Have the Tables Been Turned?
It is remarkable to think that just two years ago the Democrats were in the ascendancy thanks to deep voter frustration with the George W. Bush presidency, the mounting economic turmoil, and Obama's charisma and ambitious programme. Against the heavy odds, Obama has gone on to deliver on many of his promises, preventing the economy slipping into the abyss, reforming healthcare, overhauling financial sector regulation, cutting taxes for the middle class, making progress on environmental priorities, and ending combat operations in Iraq. He has also improved the United States' global image and made progress on diplomatic priorities such as arms control. Ironically, despite his renowned rhetorical skills, he has not managed to sell these achievements effectively. Instead, many voters are blaming the Democrats for not turning the economy around quickly enough, and they have soured on the interventionist strategy used to stabilise the financial and automotive sectors and to reform healthcare. The economy has indeed suffered a rough ride during 2010, and the labour market has continued to sag. The tentative recovery is coming too late to convince many voters that the Democrats know what they are doing with the economy.
This antipathy has been effectively fuelled by the right, which has at times resorted to scare tactics and misrepresentations of policies. The right has been further energised by the emergence of a remarkable grass-roots movement, the so-called Tea Party. Still a rather disparate group, it has nonetheless succeeded in mobilising many older voters who are uncomfortable with the administration's progressive agenda and are attracted by the populist, deeply conservative rhetoric. Sarah Palin, formerly governor of Alaska and running-mate to John McCain in the last presidential election, has emerged as one of its key figureheads. The Tea Party emphasises the perennially popular priority of tax cuts, even as it rails against budget deficits. Critics of the movement argue that it is telling voters what they want to hear while glossing over the fact that huge cuts to spending on popular programmes such as Medicare and Social Security would be required. The strategy has nonetheless been successful and the Tea Party is now increasingly dominant within the Republican Party. This has generated problems of its own for the Republicans, as party establishment figures are confronted and sometimes defeated by anti-incumbent outsiders. This could well cause major problems as the 2012 elections approach and the party looks for a presidential candidate that can appeal to moderate voters.
Outlook and Implications
It will be a major upset if the Democrats hold onto both chambers of Congress on 2 November. Assuming this does not happen, can Obama govern effectively with at least one hostile chamber? Getting legislation through without some bipartisan support will be impossible, but the Republicans are unlikely to mount such unanimous opposition to his programme as they did during the first two years. With control of Congress comes some responsibility to govern, and Obama may well find more allies among their ranks than one would expect. The coming two years are, moreover, likely to expose dangerous rifts within the Republican Party as the Tea Party seeks greater control and its unfocused message is tested. It should also be noted that Obama can achieve a fair amount through executive orders and other powers at the federal government's disposal. For example, in recent days a range of significant carbon emissions-reduction measures have been unveiled without the need for congressional approval. In sum, government in the United States will not grind to a halt if the Democrats lose ground in the mid-terms, but the process of enacting new legislation is likely to be messier than ever. Looking ahead to 2012, one should certainly not write off Obama. He will have plenty of opportunity to bounce back, and he could well dominate the electoral middle ground if the Republicans plump for a polarising candidate such as Sarah Palin.