IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Three consecutive bomb blasts hit the Indian financial capital of Mumbai yesterday (13 July), killing at least 17 and wounding 141. |
Implications | Indian authorities have stepped up security throughout the country, in particular in the capital of Delhi and in the IT hub of Bangalore, all cities that have been targeted by militants in the past. In a notable departure from previous terror attacks in India, government agencies and the media have largely refrained from immediately and explicitly pointing fingers at Pakistan. |
Outlook | Compared with previous incidents of terror attacks, the cautiousness with which the government, the media and the public is dealing with the issue, in particular by refraining from apportioning immediate blame to Pakistan, is encouraging, and suggests that the peace talks will not immediately be abandoned (even though little substantive progress should be expected of these). That said, bilateral relations remain fragile, and any further attacks could quickly wear out India's patience. |
Three consecutive bomb blasts hit the Indian financial capital of Mumbai yesterday (13 July), killing at least 17 and wounding 141. The bombs went off at around 6.45pm local time. The targeted areas were a bus stop in the central Mumbai area of Dadar, next to the railway lines that lead southwards to the financial heart of the city, as well as the crowded opera near Chowpatty Beach and the nearby Zaveri market. Indian authorities have stepped up security throughout the country, in particular in the capital of Delhi and in the IT hub of Bangalore, all cities that have been targeted by militants in the past. However, the government also said that there was no specific alert or indication of attack prior to the explosions. Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said in a statement that, so far, there appears to be no specific lead as to which group or militant outfit could be behind the attack. However, he also said that all militant groups "hostile to India" are "on the radar" as possible suspects in the bombings, which constitute the most serious since the November 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people, adding that it was "too early to point a finger at any one group".
No Immediate Blame Game
In a notable departure from previous terror attacks in India, government agencies and the media have largely refrained from immediately and explicitly pointing fingers at Pakistan. While Chidambaram's statement that all outfits "hostile to India" are on the radar implies that suspicions fall on Pakistan-based groups such as the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), which India holds responsible for the November 2008 Mumbai carnage, he made no explicit references to the group, saying instead that "whoever perpetrated the attack has worked in a very callous manner", adding that "maybe it's a very small group working in a clandestine manner". A statement released yesterday by Pakistan's foreign ministry included condemnations and expressions of sympathy by President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.
Timing
Initial reports that the blasts took place on the birthday of the lone surviving gunman of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Ajmal Qasab, have been proven false. A more plausible explanation for the timing of the attack is the 80th anniversary of the observance of Martyr's Day in Kashmir, which has been held under tight security precautions both in Pakistan-administered Kashmir (PAK) and Indian-administered Kashmir (IAK). Separatist leaders in IAK had called a strike and public procession yesterday to commemorate the massacre of 21 Kashmiri Muslims at the hands of security forces loyal to the then Hindu king of Kashmir. As such, the occasion could have been used by anti-Indian groups to reinforce their goal of independence from India, either by accession to Pakistan or as a separate entity. Linking into this issue could be efforts to torpedo the only recently resumed peace talks between India and Pakistan (which were put on hold following the 2008 Mumbai attacks), with the next foreign minister-level meeting slated to be held later this month on 26-27 July. While the resumption of the talks was welcomed the world over, substantive issues such as the status of Kashmir are unlikely to seriously figure in the talks, with Delhi continuing to demand Pakistan to do more to bring those that India holds responsible for the Mumbai attacks to justice. With India so far refraining from directly or indirectly blaming Pakistani authorities for the latest attacks, the bilateral dialogue does not appear to be at immediate risk. However, should investigations reveal the participation of Pakistan-based elements, this could lead to a new cooling of relations, and a possible suspension of the peace talks. Meanwhile, perceptions that the LeT or an associated group could have been behind the attack could be aided by observations that yesterday's bomb blasts came just two days after the fifth anniversary of the seven consecutive explosions that took place on 11 July 2006 on several Mumbai metro trains, killing more than 200 people, an attack for which the Mumbai government has blamed the LeT.
Targets
The targets were distinctly different from those in the 2008 Mumbai attacks: they were neither high profile, nor deliberately aimed at foreigners. The targeted bus stand in Dadar is located near the railway tracks that lead to southern Mumbai, although rail infrastructure was not damaged. Dadar could have been targeted as it is the key stronghold of the Hindu right-wing Shiv Sena party, which has been blamed for instigating the 1992/93 Mumbai riots. The party's headquarters, only blocks away from where the blast took place, has been evacuated numerous times over the past years due to fears of retaliatory attacks and was probably the target in a nearby explosion in 1993. Possibly reinforcing perceptions of the involvement of the LeT, it was reported in May that David Headley, who pleaded guilty on terror charges related to the Mumbai attacks, scouted the headquarters for possible attacks. Still, given that the bomb is thought to have been stationary (hidden under an umbrella next to a motorcycle) it is unlikely that either the Shiv Sena headquarters or residential supporters were the targets. That the bus stand was the site of the attack suggests rather that the intended targets were local commuters (foreigners would probably be staying either at the southern tip of the city or bypass the Dadar area via the new Worli-Bandra sea link bridge) from the financial heart of the city, while the timing (in the final stages of rush hour) suggests that the attackers sought to kill as many as possible. The second target, Zaveri market, is one of the busier areas of southern Mumbai. The explosion here had the probable intention of killing as many as possible, this time at the heart of the financial capital. A sectarian motive here is highly unlikely given that sellers comprise a multitude of religious and ethnic communities. The jewellery market has been targeted twice before, in 1993 and in 2003. The third explosion, at Opera House (near Chowpatty Beach), was the most destructive. The explosive device here was apparently hidden under rubbish.
Tactics
The tactics used were distinct from the hit-and-run approach that was utilised in 2008, but the consecutive bomb blasts are very similar in style of previous attacks in Mumbai, Delhi, Varanasi and other strategic locations. For example, three consecutive explosions occurred in Delhi on 29 October 2005, with targeted areas the busy Paharganj area near Delhi's main train station, a bus stand in southern Delhi in the Govindpuri area, and southern Delhi's busy Sarojini Nagar market. As no group claimed responsibility for this attack, the motives remain unclear, although plausible analyses point at sectarian motives aimed at Hindu, Sikh and Jain communities as the attack took place just before the festival of Diwali.
Investigations at the bomb sites are still ongoing, and police are yet to come up with more definite descriptions of explosives were used during the attack. However, The Times of India today (14 July) reported Chidambaram as saying that ammonium nitrate was used in what was termed "sophisticated IEDs" (improvised explosive devices). This would point towards a relatively organised and well-equipped group. Should the Indian Mujahideen, which claimed responsibility for a number of attacks ahead of the Commonwealth Games that caused notably less destruction and were termed "amateurish", be behind these latest attacks, this would suggest a reinvigorated capability of the group whose ability to strike was thought to have been significantly maimed since 2008.
Intelligence and Response
The attacks were a key test for India's security forces to showcase a faster and more decisive response than following the 2008 Mumbai attacks that led to a significant restructuring and ramping up of capabilities. While residents were quick to point out that there was "zero security", Chidambaram asserted that there "was no intelligence failure". However, he also said that India constitutes one of "the most troubled neighbourhoods in the world", and that hence Indian cities were naturally "vulnerable" to attack, adding that "whoever perpetrated the attack worked in a very callous manner". Indeed, it appears that, compared with November 2008, security forces were significantly faster at the scene. While witnesses told NDTV that security forces arrived later than 15 minutes after the blast, this is a marked improvement compared with 2008, when in some cases police took several hours to arrive at the scene despite the relative vicinity of police stations. Communications networks appear to have improved, too, with home minister Chidambaram and members of a special investigations team rushed to Mumbai from Delhi, arriving at the scene within hours of the blasts before rains that set in later could wash away crucial evidence. Forensic teams from Delhi and Pune, 100 kilometres from the scene, also collected samples from the blast sites. It remains to be seen, however, to what extent the results of the investigations will be perceived as sufficient by the population. Should the government be perceived as too lax on security measures, as has been the case in the past, this would provide further ammunition to the opposition that has been eager to gain political capital over the past months from issues ranging from corruption to high inflation rates.
Outlook and Implications
Resilience
As after so many incidents of carnage in India, a scene of normality appears to have returned to the city the morning after the blasts, with bus and train services running normally and commuters plying the roads to the financial heart at the southern tip of the city. As such, there are no indications that business activity has been disrupted. As after the 2008 attacks, the latest incident is likely to increase the business community's resolve to employ private security agencies to guard their respective business locations. Compared with previous incidences of terror attacks, the cautiousness with which the government, the media and the public is dealing with the issue, in particular by refraining from apportioning immediate blame to Pakistan, is encouraging, and suggests that the peace talks will not immediately be abandoned (even though little substantive progress should be expected of these). That said, bilateral relations remain fragile, and any further attacks could quickly wear out India's patience.