IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | This is the first major terrorist attack in Morocco since 2003, after which time Moroccan security forces have been highly successful in thwarting plots and uncovering terrorist cells. |
Implications | Morocco's lifeline tourism industry will take a hit as a result of the attack which targeted a well-known tourist location. It will also raise domestic and international fears that Moroccan militants have gained ground or found ways of escaping stringent security measures. |
Outlook | The authorities are expected to act swiftly to restore confidence in the security environment and reassure tourists that they are able to provide adequate security. However, until more information is revealed regarding the attack it will be difficult to assess the degree of damage done to the tourism industry and to the country's security confidence. |
Targeting Tourists
Sixteen people died yesterday in an explosion at Argana cafe, a popular destination for tourists in the Moroccan city of Marrakech. Most of the casualties were tourists, although the authorities have not yet released information regarding the nationalities of all the victims. Dozens were also wounded in the heavy blast that took place in the terrace of the cafe, located in the Jamaa el-Fna square. Initial reports from official indicated that the explosion was caused by a gas canister or a water tank. However, as the forensic investigation got underway, the authorities voiced their suspicions that the attack had a criminal intent; it is now considered by the government to have been a terrorist attack.
Interior Minister Taib Cherkaoui was cited by the official Maghreb Arab Presse (MAP) news agency saying: "Preliminary investigations conducted by the security services under the supervision of the general prosecutor showed that it is a terrorist act resulting from a strong explosion caused by an explosive device". In comments elsewhere he said it was unclear if the attack was carried out by a suicide bomber. One eyewitness told reporters yesterday that a man had walked into the cafe, ordered orange juice "and several minutes later, he blew himself up."
Many foreign governments issued statements of condolences and of condemnation after the attack. French President Nicolas Sarkozy called it a "heinous, cruel and cowardly" act, after speaking with King Mohammed on the telephone. France was joined by other foreign governments, as well as United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
Fighting Terrorism
The authorities attempted to imbue a sense of confidence after the event. Cherkaoui said: "I can assure you that we continue to fight terrorism with all legal means. The criminals implicated in this act will be brought to justice" after King Mohammed VI ordered a thorough probe into the attack. The attack is damaging for many reasons, economic and political.
It is the first major terrorist attack to have occurred since the 2003 bombings in Casablanca which chocked and shook the country severely. It is also the first attack to have happened outside of Casablanca. Morocco does not have a long history of terrorism other than the coordinated attacks in Casablanca. Fifteen suicide bombers from the Sidi Moumen shantytowns of Casablanca with suspected links to the Islamist group Salafiya Jihadiya (Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat), targeted Western and Jewish hotels and restaurants and one bomber blew himself up near the Belgian consulate. Thirteen bombers and 33 civilians were killed, eight of them were European. The attack was a wakeup call for the Morocco which had until then escaped the terrorist attacks that had been more prevalent elsewhere in North Africa, particularly in Algeria and Egypt. Salafiya Jihadiya has since then been blamed by the government for terrorist plots.
It is likely that the group will be blamed for the attack yesterday as well, although so far no one has taken responsibility for the deed. It is possible that no group will. Salafiya Jihadiya has been elusive and difficult to trace in the past. Another group that might be blamed by the authorities for the attack is Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), although the group is not known to have staged attacks in Morocco before. Nevertheless, it is thought to have a presence in the country. For example, in January the interior ministry announced that it had broken up a 37-man terror cell, without specifying when or where the cell was dismantled. At the time, MAP cited an Interior Ministry statement saying that the cell included a member of AQIM.
The last notable attacks and attempted attacks occurred in 2007. This reflects the fact that since the 2003 attacks Moroccan security services have stepped up their counter-terrorism measures, and have been highly successful in uncovering terror plots and militant cells seeking to stage attacks in Morocco and abroad. Such discoveries are announced with regular intervals. However, considering the frequency with which such discoveries take place, it is perhaps not surprising that some activities escape the authorities.
Impact on Tourism
The attack will also likely damage Morocco's lifeline tourism industry. Regional turmoil and unrest has already threatened to dampen tourist activity in Morocco, which is a key foreign-exchange earner and accounts for about 8% of GDP. Morocco has largely escaped the widespread protests that have taken place elsewhere in North Africa, but not entirely. The last big protests in Morocco were held last weekend on 24 April, they were the biggest seen so far in the country and showed that many Moroccans were not satisfied with the reform pledges made so far by King Mohammed. Considering that the attack yesterday so clearly targeted a tourist area which many visitors to Marrakech are likely to frequent, the tourism industry may indeed take a hit. Historically, the tourism industry in North Africa has rebounded from such attacks relatively speedily—as was the case in 2003 in Morocco. However, combined with the regional turmoil, the effects may be felt somewhat longer this time around.
Outlook and Implications
The authorities are expected to act swiftly to restore confidence in the ability to provide security and protect tourists. It is too early to draw definite conclusions about the impact of the attack as the details of the event are still unclear. It may indeed be a one-off incident; although considering the frequency with which the authorities uncover militant cells, and if it was a terrorist attack, it is not unlikely that whatever group has carried it out will feel emboldened and possibly attempt to stage other attacks. IHS Global Insight will continue to monitor the situation and report on the findings of the investigation.