Drug-related violence on a downward trend in Mexico's Coahuila state but 'narco-messages' highlight organised crime presence

The Cartel del Noreste (CDN) is a group that fragmented from the Los Zetas criminal organisation and placed banners in the border city of Piedras Negras threatening rival criminal groups that operate in the area. The first banner appeared in Morelos street in the Nuevo Mundo area close to the Eagle Pass International Bridge I connecting Piedras Negras to Eagle Pass, Texas. The second banner was placed along the Piedras Negras–Ciudad Acuña road, which borders the United States adjacent to the Rio Grande River. The appearance of the banners forced local mayor Sonia Villarreal Pérez to suspend public appearances for the day. She stated that the majority of recent homicide victims in the area were connected to criminal organisations and that their killing, together with the emergence of the banners, was likely related to inter-organised crime-related disputes. A third message, written on a wall by an unidentified group, appeared in Colonia Morelos, also in Piedras Negras, on 10 February.

Organised crime presence

A forensic team and judicial authorities work with relatives of disappeared at the site where human remains were found in a clandestine grave on 19 June 2017 in Santa Elena, at the outskirts of Torreón, Mexico.

Photo by Miguel Tovar/LatinContent/Getty Images: 699449024

The levels of organised crime-related violence have decreased considerably in Coahuila state over the past years, something that has been reflected in the number of total reported homicides decreasing from 771 victims in 2012 to 231 in 2017. However, the appearance of the 'narco-banners' highlights how criminal organisations are still present in the state.

Since the war against drug trafficking organisations started during the Felipe Calderón presidency (2006–12) Coahuila had been a focal point of drug-related violence in Mexico with recurrent confrontations involving the Sinaloa Cartel and the two most prominent organised crime groups in the area – the Zetas and Gulf cartels – that were also immersed in a territorial war. The latter two frequently patrolled the area in vehicles with gunmen and often exchanged gunfire with the police and army units. These groups targeted the family members of senior state-level politicians, the wardens of prisons, and other prominent government members. In 2011, a group of Zetas gunmen abducted 300 people in the town of Allende. In 2016, a mass grave containing over 600 victims was found in the town of San Pedro on the outskirts of Torreón and more recently, in December 2017, a mass grave was uncovered with the charred remains of over 3,000 murder victims.

The Zetas and the Gulf cartels have now been seriously weakened and fragmented as their senior leadership has either been captured or killed. Although armed confrontations still take place from time to time, violence has become less frequent specially if compared to the 2010–13 period. The security improvement has been reflected in official statistics, which show that Coahuila state had a murder rate of 7.62 victims per 100,000 inhabitants in 2017, one of the lowest in Mexico and below the national average (20.51). However, as highlighted by the discovery of the mass graves, but also due to underreporting, the actual number of victims is likely to be much higher.

Security indicators improving

In terms of total homicides, in Coahuila state there was a 2.2% year-on-year increase in the number of reported victims in 2017 (231), with the majority of incidents taking place in Torreón (94), the state's largest city, followed by Saltillo (30), Piedras Negras (22), and Matamoros municipality (13). However, this statistic is considerably lower than the average of 692 victims per year during 2011–13. Reported kidnappings fell 38% in 2017 compared to 2016, to 13 reported incidents; seven of which took place in Torreón. Likewise, reported theft incidents decreased 1.9% during the same period to 10,240 incidents. The majority of them took place in Torreón (3,673), Saltillo (2,217), and Monclova (925). Extortion throughout the state is likely to be largely underreported (21 incidents in 2017). However, criminal groups have targeted the mining sector in the past. The splintering of drug cartels in the area also has led some of these groups to diversify revenue streams through other activities, including cargo and hydrocarbons theft. As of mid-2017, Coahuila was the third-most-affected nationwide after Estado de Mexico and Guanajuato in terms of rail cargo theft. Due to the fact that drug-related violence has decreased, the primary risk to visitors is therefore petty crime and/or car robberies, with those resisting theft facing a higher risk of death/injury. Individuals visiting remote sites or driving through highways at night face a high kidnap risk.

Outlook and implications

The reduction of drug-related violence in Coahuila is likely to have been the result of a drug cartel-related turf war ending and the subsequent weakening of the Zetas and Gulf cartels. Local authorities and the army have announced increased surveillance of roads and the reactivation of highway security checkpoints along areas such as Castaños and San Buenaventura near the city of Monclova, and also want to revamp their security strategy through the appointment of a new security secretary and four sub-secretariats, one of which – organised crime intelligence – will be led by a senior military officer. However, a December 2017 report by the Ministry of Interior ranked the state among the 10 worst statistically in terms of federal police forces per 1,000 inhabitants (0.5). The weakness of the state's police forces has also been seen at the city level as the public security director of Torreón acknowledged on 3 February the existence of a police deficit in the city.

Although authorities claim to have the security situation under control it is likely that they will struggle maintaining the current levels of security if a new drug cartel turf war emerges. There is no indication of this happening currently, except for the emergence of these recent narco banners. However, as Coahuila borders the US it remains a strategic state for drug-trafficking organisations. The Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), Mexico's strongest drug trafficking organisation, has, for example, said in the past that it wants to take control of the state. The CNJG placed a banner in August 2017 in the city of Saltillo threatening to kill Zetas, Gulf, and CDN cartel members. Despite this, no major turf war has erupted in the area, probably as the CJNG is currently focused on strengthening its control over Mexico's pacific and gulf coasts. However, the arrest on 8 February of Zetas leader José María Guizar Valencia, alias Z-43, is likely to renew competition for control of the state. How the Zetas re-organise following the arrest will provide an indicator of the likelihood of rising drug-related violence. The killing or arrest of CDN leader Juan Francisco Treviño would provide a further indicator of rising violence triggered by attempts to gain territory by other criminal groups including the CJNG.