On 12 July, the former leader of Michoacán's "self-defence" groups, José Manuel Mireles Valverde, called on residents to mount armed resistance to military operations near Tepalcatepec.
Outlook and implications |
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Risks | Kidnap and ransom; Death and injury. |
Sectors or assets | All sectors |

A protester opposing military actions on stilts holds red flags at a rally outside the Government Palace of Michoacán in Morelia, Mexico, on 20 July 2015.
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Michoacán has long suffered high levels of violent crime associated with organised crime groups operating in the state. Although homicide numbers had been declining from a previous peak in 2014, they have, over recent months, began to climb once again. According to Mexico's National System of Public Security, there were 1,287 murders in the state in 2016; the second highest for any Mexican state (behind Guerrero with 1,847) and a substantial increase from the 777 recorded in 2015. During the first five months of 2017, the situation appears to have deteriorated still further with 599 violent deaths recorded, up by 24% on the 480 registered in the same period in 2016. However, unlike in 2014 – when criminal syndicates kidnapped and murdered a diverse range of state officials and ordinary civilians – the vast majority of victims of the violence appear to comprise members of organised crime groups. According to a study by the University of San Diego, fully 70% of murders in 2016 were linked to these organisations. The state's increased security problems come among a context of renewed criminal conflict throughout Mexico, which saw its most violent month since records began, in May. In Michoacán, violence has increased as the once-dominant "Knights Templar" cartel has fractured, and territorial disputes between roughly seven of its surviving factions, as well as within the expanding Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, have escalated. Fighting in the state has been concentrated mainly around the Ciénaga, Sierra-Costa, and Tierra Caliente regions, especially in the municipalities of Apatzingán, Gabriel Zamora, La Piedad, Uruapan, and Zamora.
Security and commerce
The entrenchment of criminal control of several parts of the state, together with the increasing violence and ongoing high levels of criminal impunity, have complicated the operational environment in Michoacán. Government crime statistics are notoriously unreliable (due to low rates of reporting), but both official figures and anecdotal evidence suggest that various sorts of commercially relevant crimes are now also on the rise in the state. For instance, in the first five months of 2017, armed robberies of businesses increased by 14% on their level in this period last year, to 256 incidents. Meanwhile, muggings and assaults were up by 30.4% on their 2015 levels. Some individual businesses have suffered serious disruption as a result of the security problems. In late June and early July, two stores in Apatzingán owned by Oxxo, the state's largest local convenience store chain, were completely burnt down, another had a Molotov cocktail thrown at its entrance, and a fourth suffered vandalism and destruction of stock by members of the "Los Viagras" criminal group. These attacks, perpetrated in retaliation for the arrest of three suspected members of the group, led the firm to announce the closure of its 12 stores in the area on 6 July. Such closures have precedent in Michoacán. According to local industrial chamber, AIEMEC, approximately 3,500 jobs were lost in the state during 2016 as a result of decisions to close automotive and paper plants, which were motivated by security concerns.
Extortion of commercial entities is also reported to be a significant problem in the state, although low levels of confidence in the security forces mean scarcely any cases are reported to police (only two incidents were recorded in official statistics during the first five months of 2017). In early July, the National Chamber for Cargo Transporters (Cámara Nacional del Autotransporte de Carga: Canacar) reported that Michoacán-based transport firms face extortion demands at their head offices, while many cargo vehicles are forced to make payments to travel through territories where criminal groups retain a large presence. Particularly affected by extortion is the avocado farming sector in the Uruapan region, which has been at the centre of a violent dispute between various criminal gangs competing for control of extortion revenues. Criminal groups frequently mete out harsh punishments on agricultural workers who refuse to acquiesce to their extortion demands. This was demonstrated most recently by the murder of seven avocado industry workers in the Salvador Escalante municipality in mid-May.
Outlook and implications
The security outlook for Michoacán remains poor, with rates of murder and violent crime anticipated to increase further during 2017. Authorities are yet to develop a comprehensive strategy to address organised crime in the state and its causes, and the onset of political campaigning prior to the 2018 presidential election in Mexico limits the prospects for effective action over the 12-month outlook. The campaign is likely to fray the working relationship between Michoacán's governor and presidential aspirant Silvano Aureoles Conejo, of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (Partido de la Revolución Democrática: PRD), and President Enrique Peña Nieto, of the rival Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional: PRI). In turn, this would inhibit the kind of close co-operation between state and federal security and political forces that would be required to tackle Michoacán's criminal groups. The state already appears to have declining opportunities to access federal resources, as national authorities shift their attention onto emerging criminal hotspots like Chihuahua and Puebla. The combination of reduced political attention on the violence, together with an increase in violent crime, would prove particularly problematic if it encouraged the revival of the state's civilian self-defence forces. The entrance of yet another armed actor into the security environment in Michoacán would very likely complicate the operational environmental still further and lead to renewed violent confrontations throughout the state.
The implications of this ongoing security decline will likely be most significant for avocado farms, which most frequently are targeted for extortion, and public-facing commercial entities, such as pharmacies and convenience stores, which are the preferred targets for thieves. However, larger-scale industrial firms in Michoacán are likely also to see their costs continue to rise as a result of the ongoing extortion of cargo transporters and the need to invest in greater protection for their facilities, stock, and staff.