IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Yesterday night about 100 troops stormed the presidential palace in the capital, Antananarivo; the central bank also came under siege. According to the army chief of staff, the aim was to “hasten” the president’s departure. |
Implications | The military takeover comes days after the president offered to hold a referendum, which was rejected outright by the opposition. |
Outlook | The opposition, led by Andry Rajoelina, is calling for the president’s removal, branding him a "dictator". Rajoelina, who now benefits from support of the majority of army officers, has proposed a transitional government. However, in the face of Ravalomanana’s continued defiance, it still could be some time before the situation is resolved. |
Risk Ratings | In light of the tense situation on the ground, IHS Global Insight has revised its risk ratings for Madagascar. Political Risk has been downgraded from 3.25 to 4.0; security risk downgraded from 2.50 to 3.75; operational risk from 3.0 to 3.5 |
Storming In
According to the recently-appointed military chief of staff Col. Andre Ndriarijaona, soldiers stormed the presidential palace and surrounded the central bank to hasten the departure of the president, which comes at a time of mounting tensions in the Indian Ocean island of 20 million. Just at the weekend, the bitter power struggle between President Marc Ravalomanana and the opposition leader Andry Rajoelina reached fever pitch, with Rajoelina once again calling for the removal of the president while declaring himself the country’s leader. A rival prime minister was sworn in, even though the elected president and government ministers had shown no signs of backing down .
Enough is Enough
In an apparently conciliatory move, the president proposed that a referendum takes place, presumably to ask the population if he should remain in power, but this idea was rejected outright by the opposition (see Madagascar: 16 March 2009: President Suggests Referendum as Panacea to Madagascan Crisis; Opposition Rejects Proposal Outright). Rajoelina and his supporters have clearly had enough of the president and his increasingly over-centralised style of governance. Branding the leader nothing short of a dictator, the opposition has been stirred up by the former mayor of Antananarivo, particularly after the government’s closure of his private radio station back in December, for carrying out an interview with the exiled former president, Didier Ratsiraka. Clearly, the government was feeling undermined by Rajoelina’s mounting popularity, which came to the fore at the time of Rajoelina’s crushing defeat of the ruling party candidate in the capital in the December 2007 mayoral election. Rajoelina’s popularity was helped by the president’s sidelining of certain political figures, including the well-liked ex-PM, Norbert Ratsirahonana. Prior to the legislative elections of September 2007, Ravalomanana’s tightening grip led to a number of defections from the ruling "Tiako-I- Madagascar" (TIM) (I Love Madagascar) party, to which the president responded by cutting the number of parliamentary seats from 160 to 127. He also ensured that at local level, TIM would exert more influence, by replacing the six autonomous zones of the country with 22 regions, whose elected councils only have a consultative role. Instead, real regional power is vested in regional leaders, who are appointed by central government.
For large swathes of the population disillusioned by Ravalomanana, Rajoelina carries with him the understandable dynamism of a 34-year-old politician, whose ability to identify with the people on the ground—where the president has lost touch—has been his major selling point. At a stage when Madagascar was going through difficult times brought about by the global hike in food and fuel prices last year, support for the president dwindled. This provided an opportunity for the opposition leader and former disc-jockey to capitalise upon. Under the current state of global economic affairs, disenchantment is still high—despite lower food and fuel costs—because the world economic slowdown has reduced demand for the country’s exports, namely textiles.
The bitter power struggle between the president and the former mayor looks set to continue. For as long as Ravalomanana digs his heels in, refusing to relinquish power, Rajoelina, nicknamed "TGV" after the French high speed train, is unrelenting, hoping to railroad his adversary into submission. Presumably, the president is unwavering because he has been at the other end of the political divide before; the situation today is uncannily similar to what occurred seven years ago, when, back in 2002, Ravalomanana was also a firebrand mayor who sought to wrest power from the then-president. As mayor of Tana, Ravalomanana led a peaceful protest to depose former president Ratsiraka, after the latter refused to acknowledge the results of the 2001 presidential election. Opposition leader Rajoelina is insisting that he has a mandate to lead the country but has denied accusations that the seizure of the presidential palace amounts to a coup. He deems that the president no longer has the right to lead the country and when quizzed about the fact that the president was democratically elected, his reply was: "But we elected him to respect the law and the constitution…he cannot do whatever he likes with the country", the BBC reports. Rajoelina’s proposal is for a transitional government to be formed which would organise elections within the next 18-24 months.
Outlook and Implications
The president is currently holed up at his residence in Antanarivo. In spite of the military’s seizure of the presidency, he remains defiant, clearly wanting to hold onto power until the bitter end, reportedly saying that he is even prepared to die with his presidential guards. The army, which has traditionally remained neutral in political spats, now appears to be in strong support of Rajoelina. According to army chief Ndriarijaona, 99% of the army backs the former disc jockey: "We are there for the Malagasy people. If Andry Rajoelina can resolve the problem, we are behind him" the U.K.’s Guardian newspaper reports. However, there are those who are also supportive of dairy tycoon Ravalomanana, who consider Rajoelina to be a troublemaker, and with the backing of the African Union (AU)—which has condemned the latest move by the army—it could be a protracted battle before the situation in Madagascar reaches a resolution. Meanwhile, the nation’s multi-million dollar tourism sector is likely to suffer a severe blow by the situation on the ground. In view of recent developments, IHS Global Insight is downgrading political risk for Madagascar from 3.25 to 4.0, security risk from 2.50 to 3.75, and operational risk from 3.0 to 3.5.