US Power Forecast Q3'23: The looming margin squeeze for fossil generation
Date:
Thursday, November 16, 2023
Location:
On-Demand
Duration:
60 minutes
Lower generation fuel costs usually improve the economics of fossil generation, however, the expansion of renewable energy is forecast to increasingly squeeze margins and reduce that benefit. This emerging dynamic may accelerate the retirement of coal and gas generation, despite current high levels of generation. With carbon-free generation expected to continue its rapid expansion, how would fossil generation still compete?
Join our Power Forecast team as they provide an update on the market dynamics of fossil and green generation from our latest Q3 2023 power forecast release.
Fossil vs. green financial performance: where do fossil generation compete?
Green performance benchmarks: Forecast of capture ratios in CAISO, PJM, and ERCOT
Curbing grid curtailment risk – progress and problems
S&P Global Commodity Insights produces content for distribution on S&P Capital IQ Pro.
Steve PiperDirector of Energy Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights
Steve Piper is Director of Energy Research with S&P Global Market Intelligence. Full Bio
Steve Piper is Director of Energy Research with S&P Global Market Intelligence. He has been with the company since 2009. Steve specializes in market price forecasting, economic feasibility assessment, demand forecasting and environmental analysis. Steve manages strategic research and forecasting for SNL Energy’s clients in the utilities, natural gas and coal industries.
Prior to his role at S&P Market Intelligence, Steve held positions at Platts, RDI and RCG/HaglerBailly.
Steve earned a Bachelor of Arts from Grinnell College and an Master in Project Management from the School of Public Affairs at University of Maryland-College Park. Minimize
S&P Global Contributor
Kristin Larson, PhDPrincipal of Energy Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights
Kristin Larson has used her extensive data science and programming experience to add depth and insight to the Market Intelligence Power Forecast, which estimates generating asset value in U.S. markets. Full Bio
Kristin Larson has used her extensive data science and programming experience to add depth and insight to the Market Intelligence Power Forecast, which estimates generating asset value in U.S. markets. Her publications cover renewable energy, capacity markets, power plant profitability, and energy storage. Previously, Dr. Larson spent over fifteen years in the renewable energy forecasting industry at start-up companies and made long term demand forecasts for Seattle City Light. Her Ph.D. is in Atmospheric Science from the University of Washington and she has a Bachelor of Science in Engineering from Princeton University. Minimize
S&P Global Contributor
Adam WilsonSenior Analyst Energy Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights
Adam Wilson is an analyst with the Regulatory Research team at S&P Global Market Intelligence specializing in U.S. renewable energy policy and analysis. Full Bio
Adam Wilson is an analyst with the Regulatory Research team at S&P Global Market Intelligence specializing in U.S. renewable energy policy and analysis. He has worked in renewable energy for over five years, specializing in wind, solar, and energy storage research. Prior to joining S&P Global, Adam worked at Navigant and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducting research and analysis on wind energy and distributed generation. Adam holds a BS in Meteorology from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and an MS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Colorado-Denver. Minimize
Moderator
S&P Global Contributor
David HarleySenior Product Manager, MI Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights
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