US Power Forecast Q1'23 – Will the widening generation gaps boost the value of resource adequacy?

In our 2022 year-end update, we flagged concerns about near-term low reserve margins in key US regions. Our power forecast for Q1 indicates the problem is growing, and we now forecast higher capacity values in many markets including auction markets such as MISO and NYISO, and the ERCOT scarcity market. PJM, long a region with significant merchant investment, may even become vulnerable. Generation in the Western US remains chronically tight.

Join our analysts for an update on the US energy market dynamics based off our Q1'23 power forecast release:

• Growing Resource Adequacy concerns:
  • MISO – will we see firm capacity prices under the new auction structure?
  • CAISO/West – can storage deliver reliability?
  • ERCOT – a stronger push to reward dispatchability
  • NYISO, PJM – more support seen in capacity markets
• Battery storage – relative value of resource adequacy and renewables optimization
• New transmission projects – with HVDC projects progressing in several regions, what are the potential impacts on resource adequacy, price, and green energy?